| Figure 3. Skill and Luck Components of the Difference Between Average Advisory Price or Revenue and the Farmer Benchmark, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Advisory Revenue, 1995-2000 Crop Years | |||||||||||||||
| Panel A. Efficient Market Theory: 24-Month Benchmark | |||||||||||||||
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| Panel B. Efficient Market Theory: 20-Month Benchmark | |||||||||||||||
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| Panel C. Behavioral Market Theory | |||||||||||||||
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| Note: The figures at the top of each bar represent the average difference between advisory prices and the USDA farmer benchmark. For ease of interpretation, skill and luck components are presented as proportions of this average difference. | |||||||||||||||