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| Table 1. Average Absolute Errors for USDA and Private Market Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Production, 1970-2003 | ||||||
| Corn | Soybeans | |||||
| USDA | Private | USDA | Private | |||
| Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | |||
| ---%--- | ---%--- | |||||
| August | ||||||
| 1970-2003 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | ||
| 1970-1984 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | ||
| 1985-2003 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | ||
| September | ||||||
| 1970-2003 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||
| 1970-1984 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | ||
| 1985-2003 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ||
| October | ||||||
| 1970-2003 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | ||
| 1970-1984 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||
| 1985-2003 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 | ||
| November | ||||||
| 1970-2003 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | ||
| 1970-1984 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | ||
| 1985-2003 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | ||