Table 2.  USDA and Private Market Forecasts for 2003 Corn and Soybean Production
	Corn			Soybeans
	USDA	Private		USDA	Private
Month	Forecast	Forecast		Forecast	Forecast
Panel A: Forecasts (million bushels)
August 2003	10,064	10,293		2,862	2,943
September 2003	9,944	9,800		2,643	2,757
October 2003	10,207	10,062		2,468	2,561
November 2003	10,278	10,327		2,452	2,451
USDA January 2004 Final	10,114	10,114		2,418	2,418
Panel B: Forecast Errors (million bushels)
August 2003	50	-179		-444	-525
September 2003	170	314		-225	-339
October 2003	-93	52		-50	-143
November 2003	-164	-213		-34	-33
Panel C: Forecast Errors (percent)
August 2003	0.5	-1.8		-18.4	-21.7
September 2003	1.7	3.1		-9.3	-14.0
October 2003	-0.9	0.5		-2.1	-5.9
November 2003	-1.6	-2.1		-1.4	-1.4
Note: Forecast errors are computed as actual minus forecast values. Hence, a positive error implies the forecast value is less than the actual value and a negative error implies the forecast value is larger than the actual value. USDA  January estimates are used as actual values in computing all forecast errors.