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| Table 3. Comparison of Performance Indicators for 2003 USDA Corn and Soybean Crop Production Forecasts and Historical Ranges over 1970-2002 | ||||||||||||||||
| Corn | Soybeans | |||||||||||||||
| Release | Change in | Forecast | Market | Price | Change in | Forecast | Market | Price | ||||||||
| Month | Forecast | Error | Surprise | Reaction | Forecast | Error | Surprise | Reaction | ||||||||
| ---%--- | ---%--- | |||||||||||||||
| August | ||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | NA | 0.5 | -2.3 | 6.4 | NA | -18.4 | -2.8 | 3.7 | ||||||||
| Previous High | NA | 9.6 | 4.5 | 12.7 | NA | 10.8 | 3.7 | 11.4 | ||||||||
| Previous Low | NA | -24.6 | -6.3 | -6.3 | NA | -15.5 | -3.2 | -6.0 | ||||||||
| September | ||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.8 | -7.7 | -9.3 | -4.3 | 5.3 | ||||||||
| Previous High | 4.5 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | ||||||||
| Previous Low | -16.2 | -14.0 | -2.2 | -3.8 | -16.7 | -9.0 | -4.0 | -5.6 | ||||||||
| October | ||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 1.4 | -1.4 | -6.6 | -2.1 | -3.8 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| Previous High | 3.7 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | ||||||||
| Previous Low | -5.5 | -9.7 | -2.6 | -3.8 | -4.8 | -6.0 | -3.5 | -9.4 | ||||||||
| November | ||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 0.8 | ||||||||
| Previous High | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 5.2 | ||||||||
| Previous Low | -6.6 | -2.5 | -2.9 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -5.8 | -1.5 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Notes: NA stands for not applicable. The previous high and low for a given month refer to the high and low over the 1970-2002 period. Change in forecast is the percentage change in a USDA production forecast relative to the previous month. Market surprise is the percentage difference between the USDA forecast and the private market forecast for a given month. Price reaction is the percentage change in futures prices (December for corn; November for soybeans) from the closing (settlement) price the day before a crop report is released to the first non-limit opening or closing price after a report is released. | ||||||||||||||||