Table 4. Comparison of Actual Price Reaction to the Release of 2003 USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts to the Price Reaction Predicted by Historical Relationships over 1970-2002
	Corn					Soybeans
	Actual		Predicted			Actual		Predicted
Month	Price Reaction		Price Reaction			Price Reaction		Price Reaction
	---%---					---%---
August 2003	6.4		2.8			3.7		2.9
September 2003	-0.8		-1.1			5.3		1.7
October 2003	-1.4		-1.2			4.4		4.3
November 2003	1.0		1.2			0.8		0.2
Note: The predicted price reaction is computed using a regression model of the relationship between market surprise and actual price reaction over 1970-2002.  The individual models are presented in Figures 17 and 18.