Table 2. Root Mean Squared Percentage Errors (RMSPE) for USDA and Private Market Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Production, 1970-2004
	Corn				Soybeans
	USDA	Private			USDA	Private
	Forecast	Forecast	Difference		Forecast	Forecast	Difference
	---%---				---%---
August
1970-2004	7.4	8.0	-0.6		6.5	6.7	-0.2
1970-1984	8.7	9.9	-1.2		6.2	6.3	-0.1
1985-2004	6.3	6.2	0.1		6.8	7.0	-0.2
September
1970-2004	5.1	5.6	-0.6		4.9	5.2	-0.3
1970-1984	4.5	5.0	-0.5		4.0	4.5	-0.6
1985-2004	5.5	6.1	-0.6		5.5	5.7	-0.2
October
1970-2004	3.2	3.8	-0.6		2.8	3.3	-0.5
1970-1984	2.8	3.4	-0.7		3.1	3.3	-0.2
1985-2004	3.5	4.0	-0.5		2.6	3.4	-0.8
November
1970-2004	1.6	2.1	-0.5		1.8	2.0	-0.2
1970-1984	1.6	2.0	-0.4		2.3	2.7	-0.3
1985-2004	1.5	2.2	-0.6		1.3	1.4	-0.1
Note: Difference is calculated as USDA minus private market.  Hence, a negative difference shows that the root mean squared error of the USDA was smaller than the root mean squared error of the private market and vice versa.