Table 3.  USDA and Private Market Forecasts for 2004 Corn and Soybean Production
	Corn			Soybeans
	USDA	Private		USDA	Private
Month	Forecast	Forecast		Forecast	Forecast
Panel A: Forecasts (million bushels)
August 2004	10,923	10,824		2,877	2,955
September 2004	10,961	10,963		2,836	2,891
October 2004	11,613	11,293		3,107	3,064
November 2004	11,741	11,713		3,150	3,144
USDA January 2005 Final	11,807	11,807		3,141	3,141
Panel B: Forecast Errors (million bushels)
August 2004	884	984		264	187
September 2004	846	844		305	250
October 2004	194	515		34	78
November 2004	66	94		-9	-3
Panel C: Forecast Errors (percent)
August 2004	7.5	8.3		8.4	5.9
September 2004	7.2	7.1		9.7	8.0
October 2004	1.6	4.4		1.1	2.5
November 2004	0.6	0.8		-0.3	-0.1
Note: Forecast errors are computed as actual minus forecast values. Hence, a positive error implies the forecast value is less than the actual value and a negative error implies the forecast value is larger than the actual value.