Table 4. Comparison of Performance Indicators for 2004 USDA Corn and Soybean Crop Production Forecasts and Historical Ranges over 1970-2003
	Corn					Soybeans
Release	Change in	Forecast	Market	Price		Change in	Forecast	Market	Price
Month	Forecast	Error	Surprise	Reaction		Forecast	Error	Surprise	Reaction
	---%---					---%---
August
2004	NA	7.5	0.9	-1.2		NA	8.4	-2.7	2.6
Previous High	NA	9.6	4.5	12.7		NA	10.8	3.7	11.4
Previous Low	NA	-24.6	-6.3	-6.3		NA	-18.4	-3.8	-6.0
September
2004	0.3	7.2	0.0	-1.3		-1.4	9.7	-1.9	-0.7
Previous High	4.5	9.3	3.1	2.2		5.3	9.5	4.2	5.3
Previous Low	-16.2	-14.0	-2.2	-3.8		-16.7	-9.3	-4.3	-5.6
October
2004	5.9	1.6	2.8	-2.8		9.6	1.1	1.4	-4.6
Previous High	3.7	7.5	2.4	4.5		6.4	5.2	4.4	4.9
Previous Low	-5.5	-9.7	-2.6	-3.8		-6.6	-6.0	-4.9	-9.4
November
2004	1.1	0.6	0.2	-0.9		1.4	-0.3	-0.3	-1.1
Previous High	4.4	5.1	2.1	10.1		4.4	3.6	2.3	5.2
Previous Low	-6.6	-2.5	-2.9	-2.7		-3.5	-5.8	-1.5	-2.2
Notes:  NA stands for not applicable.  The previous high and low for a given month refer to the high and low over the 1970-2004 period. Change in forecast is the percentage change in a USDA production forecast relative to the previous month.  Market surprise is the percentage difference between the USDA forecast and the private market forecast for a given month.  Price reaction is the percentage change in futures prices (December for corn; November for soybeans) from the closing (settlement) price the day before a crop report is released to the first non-limit opening or closing price after a report is released.