| Table 5. Comparison of Actual Price Reaction to the Release of 2004 USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts to the Price Reaction Predicted by Historical Relationships over 1970-2003 | ||||||||||
| Corn | Soybeans | |||||||||
| Actual | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | |||||||
| Month | Price Reaction | Price Reaction | Price Reaction | Price Reaction | ||||||
| ---%--- | ---%--- | |||||||||
| August 2004 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | ||||||
| September 2004 | -1.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 1.1 | ||||||
| October 2004 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -4.6 | -0.9 | ||||||
| November 2004 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Note: The predicted price reaction is computed using a regression model of the relationship between market surprise and actual price reaction over 1970-2003. Similar models for 1970-2004 are presented in Figures 21 and 22. | ||||||||||