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| Table 31.
Significance Tests of the Average Advisory Program Percentage Returns,
Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Advisory Revenue, 1995 - 2004 Crop Years, Commercial
Storage Costs |
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| Commodity/ |
Difference Between Average Advisory Program and
Benchmark |
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Average |
Standard |
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Two-tail |
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| Benchmark |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
Difference |
Error |
t-statistic |
p-value |
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---%--- |
---%--- |
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| Corn |
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Market Benchmarks: |
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| 24-Month Average |
4.8 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
-3.3 |
-1.5 |
1.8 |
-0.9 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
5.0 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.83 |
0.43 |
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| 20-Month Average |
-1.1 |
-1.4 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
6.9 |
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0.8 |
2.76 |
0.02 |
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Farmer Benchmarks: |
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USDA Prices |
-0.9 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
9.9 |
4.7 |
9.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
5.7 |
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1.1 |
3.95 |
0.00 |
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Market Prices |
-8.7 |
8.7 |
7.0 |
12.8 |
6.9 |
10.0 |
4.2 |
3.1 |
-0.4 |
18.0 |
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2.3 |
2.66 |
0.03 |
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| Soybeans |
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Market Benchmarks: |
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| 24-Month Average |
5.3 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
-0.7 |
3.2 |
0.3 |
2.1 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
3.0 |
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0.6 |
4.25 |
0.00 |
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| 20-Month Average |
3.2 |
0.8 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
7.1 |
1.1 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
-2.0 |
2.0 |
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0.8 |
3.33 |
0.01 |
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Farmer Benchmarks: |
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USDA Prices |
0.1 |
1.4 |
3.4 |
12.3 |
5.2 |
2.8 |
-1.8 |
-3.1 |
-14.4 |
6.7 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
0.56 |
0.59 |
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Market Prices |
-2.6 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
15.3 |
5.8 |
4.0 |
-0.8 |
-3.0 |
-19.2 |
10.6 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
0.58 |
0.58 |
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| 50/50 Revenue |
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Market Benchmarks: |
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| 24-Month Average |
5.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
-2.0 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
4.0 |
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0.7 |
2.38 |
0.04 |
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| 20-Month Average |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
-0.2 |
4.6 |
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0.6 |
4.12 |
0.00 |
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Farmer Benchmarks: |
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USDA Prices |
-0.5 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
11.1 |
4.9 |
6.5 |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
-5.1 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
1.4 |
2.06 |
0.07 |
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Market Prices |
-6.1 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
14.1 |
6.3 |
7.6 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
-8.1 |
14.6 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
1.77 |
0.11 |
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| Notes: For a given year, percentage difference is computed as
the percentage difference between the average advisory price or revenue and
the benchmarks. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and
one star indicates significance at the five percent level. |
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