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Scott H. Irwin    
Ph: (217) 333-6087
Fax: (217) 333-5538
sirwin@illinois.edu

 

Journal Publications (Updated August 2017)

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Berna Karali, and Scott H. Irwin. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, first published online: August 24, 2017, doi: 10.1093/aepp/ppx032.

Etienne, Xiaoli L., Mindy L. Mallory, and Scott H. Irwin. "Estimating the Cost of Pre-Harvest Forward Contracting Corn and Soybeans in Illinois Before and After 2007." Agribusiness 33(2017)358–377.

Etienne, Xiaoli L., Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia. "New Evidence that Index Traders Did Not Drive Bubbles in Grain Futures Markets." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 42(2017):45-67.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets." Journal of Agricultural Economics 68(2017):345–365.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "The 'Necessity' of New Position Limits in Agricultural Futures Markets: The Verdict from Daily Firm-level Position Data." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 38(2016):292-317.

Joseph, Kishore, Scott H. Irwin and Philip Garcia. "Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?" Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 38(2016):152-173.

Hoffman, Linwood A., Xiaoli L. Etienne, Scott H. Irwin, Evelyn V. Colino, and Jose I. Toasa. "Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn." Agricultural Economics 46157–171.

Etienne, Xiaoli L., Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia. "$25 spring wheat was a bubble, right?" Agricultural Finance Review 75114-132.

Etienne, Xiaoli L., Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia. "Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 9765-87.

Garcia, Philip, Scott H. Irwin, and Aaron Smith. "Futures Market Failure?" American Journal of Agricultural Economics 9740-64.

Mallory, Mindy L., Wenjiao Zhao, and Scott H. Irwin. "The Cost of Post-Harvest Forward Contracting in Corn and Soybeans." Agribusiness 31(2015):47-62.

Sanders, Dwight R, and Scott H. Irwin. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data." Energy Economics 46(2014):S57–S68.

Wang, Xiaoyang, Philip Garcia, and Scott H. Irwin. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(2014):557-577.

Etienne, Xiaoli L., Scott H. Irwin and Philip Garcia. "Bubbles in Food Commodity Markets: Four Decades of Evidence." Journal of International Money and Finance 42(2014):129–155.

Irwin, Scott H. "Commodity Index Investment and Food Prices: Does the "Masters Hypothesis" Explain Recent Price Spikes?" Agricultural Economics 44(2013):29-41.

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Berna Karali, and Scott H. Irwin. "When Do the USDA Forecasters Make Mistakes?" Applied Economics 45(2013):5086-5103.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "Measuring Index Investment in Commodity Futures Markets." The Energy Journal 34(2013):105-127.

Isengildina, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. "Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 45(2013):95-107.

Aulerich, Nicole M., Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia. "Returns to Individual Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets: Skill or Luck?" Applied Economics 45(2013):3650-3666.

Mallory, Mindy L., Scott H. Irwin, and Dermot J. Hayes. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets." Energy Economics 34(2012):2157–2166.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "A Reappraisal of Investing in Commodity Futures Markets." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 34(2012):515–530.

Colino, Evelyn V., Scott H. Irwin, Philip Garcia, and Xiaoli Etienne. "Composite and Outlook Forecast Accuracy." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(2012):228–246.

Irwin, Scott H., and Dwight R. Sanders. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 44(2012):371-396.

Irwin, Scott H., and Dwight R. Sanders. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets." Energy Economics 34(2012):256–269.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "New Evidence on the Impact of Index Funds in U.S. Grain Futures Markets." Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 59(2011):519–532.

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Scott Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Luca Massac. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for USDA Commodity Price Forecasts." Applied Economics 43(2011):3789-3803.

Sanders, Dwight R. and Scott H. Irwin. "The Impact of Index Funds in Commodity Futures Markets: A Systems Approach." Journal of Alternative Investments 14(2011):40-49.

Colino, Evelyn V., Scott H. Irwin, and Philip Garcia. "Improving the Accuracy of Outlook Price Forecasts." Agricultural Economics 42(2011):357-371.

Irwin, Scott H, Darrel L Good, and Mindy L Mallory. "Could a Variable Ethanol Blenders’ Tax Credit Work?" Biofuels 2(2011):277-284.

Brittain, Lee, Philip Garcia, and Scott H Irwin. "Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36(2011):28-47.

Urcola, Hernan A., and Scott H. Irwin. "Are Agricultural Options Overpriced?" Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36(2011):63-77.

Irwin, Scott H., and Dwight R. Sanders. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 33(2011):1-31.

Irwin, Scott H., Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good and Eugene L. Kunda. "Spreads and Non-Convergence in Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures: Are Index Funds to Blame?" Applied Economics Perspectives and Policy 33(2011):116-142.

Urcola, Hernan A., and Scott H. Irwin. "Hog Options: Contract Redesign and Market Efficiency." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 42(2010):773–790.

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. "Quantile Regression Estimates of Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 35(2010):545–567.

Cabrini, Silvina M., Scott H. Irwin and Darrel L. Good. "Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Expected Performance." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92(2010):622-637.

Park, C., and Scott H. Irwin. "A Reality Check on Technical Trading Rule Profits in US Futures Markets." Journal of Futures Markets 30(2009):633-659.

Colino, Evelyn V., and Scott H. Irwin. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92(2010):1-15.

Sanders, Dwight R., Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Merrin. " The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?" Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 32(2010):77-94.

Sanders, Dwight R., and Scott H. Irwin. "A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence." Agricultural Economics 41(2010):25-32.

Franken, Jason R. V., Philip Garcia, and Scott H. Irwin. "Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Aggregation?" Journal of Agribusiness 27(2009): 65-84.

Irwin, Scott H., Dwight R. Sanders, and Robert P. Merrin. “Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust).” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 41(2009):377-391.

Sanders, Dwight R., Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Merrin. “Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 34(2009): 276-296.

Dietz, Sarah N., Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Producers.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 41(2009):177-191.

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “Impact of WADSE Reports on Implied Volatility in Corn and Soybean Markets.” Agribusiness 24(2008):473-490.

Isengildina-Massa, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Jennifer K. Gomez. “The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 40(2008):89-104.

Frank, Julieta M., Philip Garcia, and Scott H. Irwin. “To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 40(2008):73-88.

Pennings, Joost M.E., Olga Isengildina, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, Philip Garcia, and W. Erno Kuiper. “Producers’ Complex Risk Management Choices.” Agribusiness 24(2008):31-54.

Cabrini, Silvina M., Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(2007):607-623.

Park, Cheol Ho, and Scott H. Irwin. “What Do We Know About the Profitability of Technical Analysis?Journal of Economic Surveys 21(2007):786-826.

Isengildina, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2006):1091-1104.

Isengildina, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 31(2006):262-282.

Isengildina, Olga, Joost M.E. Pennings, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “U.S. Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services.” Journal of International Food and Agribusiness Marketing 18(2006):67-86.

Irwin, Scott H., Darrel L. Good, and Joao Martines-Filho. “The Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2006):162-181.

Hagedorn, Lewis A., Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Evelyn V.Colino. “Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(2005):1271-1279.

Shi, Wei, and Scott H. Irwin. “Optimal Hedging with a Subjective View: An Empirical Bayesian Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(2005):918-930.

Cabrini, Silvina M., Brian G. Stark, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Joao Martines-Filho. “Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification is Enough?Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 37(2005):101-114.

Pennings, Joost M.E., Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Olga Isengildina. “Heterogeneity in the Likelihood of Market Advisory Service Use by U.S. Crop Producers.” Agribusiness 21(2005):109-128.

Isengildina, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(2004):990-1004.

Pennings, Joost M.E., Olga Isengildina, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers’ Marketing Decisions.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 29(2004):308-327.

Stark, Brian G., Silvina M. Cabrini, Hayri Onal, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good, and Joao Martines-Filho. “Efficiency Analysis of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: A Non-Linear Mixed-Integer Programming Approach.” Manufacturing and Service Operations Management 6(2004):237-252.

Irwin, Scott H., Gary D. Schnitkey, Darrel L. Good, and Paul N. Ellinger. "The farmdoc Project: This is Still Your Father’s Extension Program." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(2004):772-777.

Sherrick, Bruce J., Fabio C. Zanini, Gary D. Schnitkey, and Scott H. Irwin.  “Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(2004):406-419.

Sanders, Dwight R., Scott H. Irwin, and Raymond M. Leuthold. “The Theory of Contrary Opinion: A Test Using Sentiment Indexes in Futures Markets.” Journal of Agribusiness 21(2003):39-64.

Schnitkey, Gary D., Bruce J. Sherrick, and Scott H. Irwin. “Evaluation of Risk Reductions Associated with Multi-Peril Crop Insurance Products.” Agricultural Finance Review 63(2003):1-21.

Egelkraut, Thorsten M., Philip Garcia, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Services.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 35(2003):79-95.

Pennings, Joost M.E., Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good. “Surveying Farmers: A Case Study.” Review of Agricultural Economics 24(2002):266-277.

Manfredo, Mark R., Raymond M. Leuthold, and Scott H. Irwin. “Forecasting Fed Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Corn Cash Price Volatility: Time Series, Implied Volatility, and Composite Approaches.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 33(2001):523-538.

Zulauf, Carl R., Donald W. Larson, Christopher K. Alexander, and Scott H. Irwin.  “Pre-Harvest Pricing Strategies in Ohio Corn Markets: The Role of Cash Flow Risk.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 33(2001):103-115.

Zulauf, Carl R., Jeffrey A. Goodbar, Scott H. Irwin, and Robert P. Leeds. “A Case Study of the General Principles of Corn Storage: Ohio Corn, 1964-1997 Crop Years.” Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers 63(1999):117-126.

Irwin, Scott H., and Satoko Yoshimaru. “Managed Futures, Positive Feedback Trading, and Futures Price Volatility.” Journal of Futures Markets 19(1999):759-776.

Zulauf, Carl R., Scott H. Irwin, Jason E. Ropp, and Anthony J. Sberna. “A Reappraisal of the Forecasting Performance of Corn and Soybean New Crop Futures.” Journal of Futures Markets 19(1999):603-618.

Zulauf, Carl R., and Scott H. Irwin. “Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers.” Review of Agricultural Economics 20(1998):308-331.

Canoles, W. Bruce, Sarahelen Thompson, Scott H. Irwin, and Virginia Grace France. “An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators.” Journal of Futures Markets 18(1998):765-802.

Colling, Phil L., Scott H. Irwin, and Carl R. Zulauf. “Future Price Responses to USDA's Cold Storage report.” Agribusiness 13(1997):393-400.

Garcia, Philip, Scott H. Irwin, Raymond M. Leuthold, and Li Yang. “The Value of Public Information in Commodity Futures Markets.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 32(1997):559-570.

Sherrick, Bruce J., Scott H. Irwin, and D. Lynn Forster. “An Examination of Option-Implied S&P 500 Futures Price Distributions.” Financial Review 31(1996):667-694.

Irwin, Scott H., Carl R. Zulauf, and Thomas E. Jackson. “Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78(1996):387-399.

Brorsen, B. Wade, and Scott H. Irwin. “Improving the Relevance of Research on Price Forecasting and Marketing Strategies.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 25(1996):68-75.

Colling, Phil L., Scott H. Irwin, and Carl R. Zulauf. “The Reaction of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Futures Prices to the USDA Export Inspection Report.” Review of Agricultural Economics 18(1996):127-136.

Colling, Phil L., and Scott H. Irwin. “Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports: Comment.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77(1995):698-702.

Liu, Te-Ru, Mary E. Gerlow, and Scott H. Irwin. “The Performance of Alternative VAR Models in Forecasting Exchange Rates.” International Journal of Forecasting 10(1994):419-433.

Irwin, Scott H., Carl R. Zulauf, and Barry L. Ward. “The Predictability of Managed Futures Returns.” Journal of Derivatives 2(1994):20-27.

Irwin, Scott H., Mary E. Gerlow, and Te-Ru Liu. “The Forecasting Performance of Livestock Futures Prices: A Comparison to USDA Expert Predictions.” Journal of Futures Markets 14(1994):861-875.

Irwin, Scott H., and Cameron S. Thraen. “Rational Expectations in Agriculture?  A Review of the Issues and Evidence.” Review of Agricultural Economics 16(1994):125-147.

Gerlow, Mary E., Scott H. Irwin, and Te-Ru Liu. “Economic Evaluation of Commodity Price Forecasting Models.” International Journal of Forecasting 9(1993):387-397.

Irwin, Scott H., Terry R. Krukemyer, and Carl R. Zulauf. “Investment Performance of Public Commodity Pools: 1979 to 1990.” Journal of Futures Markets 13(1993):799-820.

Colling, Phil L., Scott H. Irwin, and Carl R. Zulauf. “Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports.” Review of Agricultural Economics 14(1992):263-270.

Gerlow, Mary E., Scott H. Irwin, Carl R. Zulauf, and Jonathan N. Tinker. “The Market Timing Value of Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models Within the Soybean Complex.” Journal of Agribusiness 9(1992):51-63.

Sherrick, Bruce J., Scott H. Irwin, and D. Lynn Forster. “Option-Based Evidence of the Non-Stationarity of Expected S&P 500 Futures Price Distributions.” Journal of Futures Markets 12(1992):275-290.

Johnson, Robert L., Carl R. Zulauf, Scott H. Irwin, and Mary E. Gerlow. “The Soybean Complex Spread: An Examination of Market Efficiency From the Viewpoint of a Production Process.” Journal of Futures Markets 11(1991):25-37.

Gerlow, Mary E., and Scott H. Irwin. “The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasting Models:  An Economic Evaluation.” Applied Economics 23(1991):133-142.

Irwin, Scott H. “Research Directions in Commodity Options—Academic and Practitioner Views—Agricultural.” Review of Futures Markets 9(1990):139-144.

Baldwin, E. Dean, Scott H. Irwin, Hassan Ahmed, and Robert Rye. “Hedging Effectiveness in a Vertical Marketing Channel.” Journal of Agribusiness 8(1990):35-48.

Sherrick, Bruce J., Scott H. Irwin, and D. Lynn Forster. “Expected Soybean Futures Price Distributions:  Option Based Assessments.” Review of Futures Markets 9(1990):386-409.

Colling, Phil L., and Scott H. Irwin. “The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(1990):84-94.

Irwin, Scott H., and Phil L. Colling. “Are Farm Asset Values Too Volatile?Agricultural Finance Review 50(1990):58-65.

Frank, Stuart D., Scott H. Irwin, George H. Pfeiffer, and Charles E. Curtis. “Further Evidence on Soybean Marketing Strategies:  The Role of Options.” North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics 11(1989):213-220.

Hall, Joyce A., B. Wade Brorsen, and Scott H. Irwin. “The Distribution of Futures Prices:  A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24(1989):105-116.

Irwin, Scott H. “Comment: How Efficient are the Most Liquid Futures Contracts? A Study of Treasury Bond Futures.” Review of Futures Markets 7(1988 Supplement):596.

Irwin, Scott H., D. Lynn Forster, and Bruce J. Sherrick. “Returns to Farm Real Estate Revisited.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(1988):580-587.

Lukac, Louis P., B. Wade Brorsen, and Scott H. Irwin. “A Test of Futures Market Disequilibrium Using Twelve Different Technical Trading Systems.” Applied Economics 20(1988):623-639.

Lukac, Louis P., B. Wade Brorsen, and Scott H. Irwin. “Similarity of Computer Guided Technical Trading Systems.” Journal of Futures Markets 8(1988):1-13.

Irwin, Scott H., and Diego Landa. “Real Estate, Futures, and Gold as Portfolio Assets.” Journal of Portfolio Management 14(1987):29-34.

Brorsen, B. Wade, and Scott H. Irwin. “Futures Funds and Price Volatility.” Review of Futures Markets 7(1987):118-135.

Irwin, Scott H., and B. Wade Brorsen. “A Note on the Factors Affecting Technical Trading System Returns.” Journal of Futures Markets 7(1987):591-595.

Irwin, Scott H., and B. Wade Brorsen. “Public Futures Funds.” Journal of Futures Markets 6(1985):461-485.

Brorsen, B. Wade, and Scott H. Irwin. “Examination of Commodity Fund Performance.” Review of Research in Futures Markets 4(1985):84-94.

Irwin, Scott H., and J. William Uhrig. “Do Technical Analysts Have Holes in Their Shoes?Review of Research in Futures Markets 3(1984):264-277.

University of Illinois