Table 27.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Winner and Loser Categories Between Pairs of Adjacent Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995 - 2001 Crop Years
                               
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Two-tail Two-tail Two-tail
p-value p-value p-value
Year  Year  Winner  Loser for Fisher's  Winner  Loser for Fisher's  Winner  Loser for Fisher's 
    t   t+1   t+1 t+1 Exact Test     t+1 t+1 Exact Test     t+1 t+1 Exact Test
---number of programs--- ---number of programs--- ---number of programs---
1995 1996 Winner t 5 6 Winner t 6 5 Winner t 7 4
Loser t 6 5 1.00 Loser t 5 6 1.00 Loser t 4 7 0.39
1996 1997 Winner t 7 5 Winner t 6 5 Winner t 6 5
Loser t 5 7 0.68 Loser t 5 6 1.00 Loser t 5 6 1.00
1997 1998 Winner t 6 5 Winner t 6 4 Winner t 3 7
Loser t 5 7 0.68 Loser t 4 7 0.39 Loser t 7 4 0.20
1998 1999 Winner t 7 4 Winner t 7 3 Winner t 6 4
Loser t 4 7 0.39 Loser t 3 8 0.09 Loser t 4 7 0.39
1999 2000 Winner t 8 4 Winner t 8 4 Winner t 9 3 Text Box: *
Loser t 4 9 0.12 Loser t 4 8 0.22 Loser t 3 9 0.04
2000 2001 Winner t 4 7 Winner t 5 6 Winner t 5 6
Loser t 7 6 0.44 Loser t 6 6 1.00 Loser t 6 6 1.00
                               
Note: The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by net advisory price in the first year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and then forming two groups of programs: "winners" are those services in the top half of the rankings and "losers" are services in the bottom half.  Next, the same programs are ranked by net advisory price for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996), and again divided into "winners" and "losers."  For a given comparison, advisory programs must fall in one of the following categories: winner t-winner t+1, winner t-loser t+1, loser t-winner t+1, loser t-loser t+1.  If advisory program performance is unpredictable, approximately the same counts will be found in each of the four combinations.  Fisher’s Exact Test is the appropriate statistical test because both row and column totals are pre-determined in the 2 x 2 contingency table formed on the basis of winner and loser counts. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.