Table 29.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Adjacent Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995 - 2001 Crop Years
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.60 2.26 6.55 6.15 337 318
Middle Third 2.41 2.23 6.16 5.95 318 308
Bottom Third 2.18 2.15 5.91 5.90 298 307
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.42 0.11 0.65 0.25 39 11
          t-statistic N/A 2.59 N/A 2.25 N/A 1.82
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.05 N/A 0.07 N/A 0.13
Top Fourth 2.65 2.29 6.65 6.20 342 320
Second Fourth 2.45 2.22 6.25 5.99 321 310
Third Fourth 2.36 2.22 6.09 5.95 313 310
Bottom Fourth 2.14 2.13 5.87 5.88 295 305
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.51 0.16 0.77 0.32 47 15
          t-statistic N/A 3.09 N/A 2.03 N/A 2.35
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.03 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.07
                 
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and grouping programs by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average net advisory price for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of six comparisons (1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, 1997 vs. 1998, 1998 vs. 1999, 1999 vs. 2000, and 2000 vs. 2001), so there are five degrees of freedom for the t-test.. Some average differences of the top and bottom quantiles may not equal the difference of the averages for the quantiles due to rounding. N/A denotes not applicable. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.