Table 2.  USDA and Private Market Forecasts for 2003 Corn and Soybean Production
           
Corn Soybeans
USDA Private USDA Private
Month Forecast Forecast   Forecast Forecast
Panel A: Forecasts (million bushels)
August 2003 10,064 10,293 2,862 2,943
September 2003  9,944 9,800 2,643 2,757
October 2003 10,207 10,062 2,468 2,561
November 2003 10,278 10,327 2,452 2,451
  USDA January 2004 Final 10,114 10,114 2,418 2,418
Panel B: Forecast Errors (million bushels)
August 2003 50 -179 -444 -525
September 2003  170 314 -225 -339
October 2003 -93 52 -50 -143
November 2003 -164 -213 -34 -33
Panel C: Forecast Errors (percent)
August 2003 0.5 -1.8 -18.4 -21.7
September 2003  1.7 3.1 -9.3 -14.0
October 2003 -0.9 0.5 -2.1 -5.9
November 2003 -1.6 -2.1   -1.4 -1.4
Note: Forecast errors are computed as actual minus forecast values. Hence, a positive error implies the forecast value is less than the actual value and a negative error implies the forecast value is larger than the actual value. USDA  January estimates are used as actual values in computing all forecast errors.