Table 4. Comparison of Actual Price Reaction to the Release of 2003 USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts to the Price Reaction Predicted by Historical Relationships over 1970-2002
                   
Corn Soybeans
Actual Predicted Actual Predicted
Month Price Reaction Price Reaction   Price Reaction Price Reaction
---%--- ---%---
August 2003 6.4 2.8 3.7 2.9
September 2003  -0.8 -1.1 5.3 1.7
October 2003 -1.4 -1.2 4.4 4.3
November 2003 1.0 1.2   0.8 0.2
Note: The predicted price reaction is computed using a regression model of the relationship between market surprise and actual price reaction over 1970-2002.  The individual models are presented in Figures 17 and 18.