Table 40.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Ranks Between Adjacent Pairs of Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995 - 2003 Crop Years
               
Year  Year  Rank Correlation
t t+1   Corn   Soybeans   50/50 Revenue
1995 1996 Correlation Coefficient 0.28
0.36 0.36
Z-statistic 1.30 1.70 1.68
Two-tail p-value 0.19 0.09 0.09
1996 1997 Correlation Coefficient 0.01 0.10 0.00
Z-statistic 0.06 0.48 -0.01
Two-tail p-value 0.96 0.63 0.99
Text Box: **
1997 1998 Correlation Coefficient 0.53
0.18 0.16
Z-statistic 2.56 0.85 0.73
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.40 0.46
Text Box: *
1998 1999 Correlation Coefficient 0.42 Text Box: **
0.65
Text Box: *
0.53
Z-statistic 1.95 2.99 2.42
Two-tail p-value 0.05 0.00 0.02
1999 2000 Correlation Coefficient Text Box: **
0.50
0.35
Text Box: **
0.72
Z-statistic 2.52 1.74 3.54
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.08 0.00
2000 2001 Correlation Coefficient -0.12 0.03 -0.17
z-statistic -0.59 0.14 -0.83
Two-tail p-value 0.55 0.89 0.41
2001 2002 Correlation Coefficient -0.05 0.04 0.06
z-statistic -0.25 0.19 0.32
Two-tail p-value 0.80 0.85 0.75
2002 2003 Correlation Coefficient Text Box: **
0.49
0.16 0.23
z-statistic 2.48 0.81 1.13
Two-tail p-value 0.01 0.42 0.26
1995-2003 Correlation 0.26 0.24 0.24
Average            
Note: Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.