Table 42.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Groups Between Pairs of Non-Overlapping Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995 - 2003 Crop Years
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Group Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+2   in year t in year t+2   in year t in year t+2
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.53 2.15 6.43 5.82 331 303
Middle Third 2.34 2.15 6.05 5.73 312 300
Bottom Third 2.13 2.13 5.81 5.68 294 303
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.40 0.02 0.62 0.14 37 0
          t-statistic N/A 0.45 N/A 1.15 N/A -0.09
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.67 N/A 0.29 N/A 0.93
Top Fourth 2.57 2.15 6.52 5.84 336 304
Second Fourth 2.39 2.18 6.14 5.75 316 300
Third Fourth 2.30 2.10 5.98 5.68 308 300
Bottom Fourth 2.08 2.16 5.78 5.71 291 304
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.49 -0.004 0.74 0.13 45 0
          t-statistic N/A -0.07 N/A 1.01 N/A 0.09
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.95 N/A 0.35 N/A 0.93
Top Two  Programs 2.74 2.14 6.77 5.91 354 307
Bottom Two Programs  1.97 2.22 5.63 5.96 283 306
  Top Two minus Bottom Two
          Average 0.77 -0.08 1.15 -0.05 72 1
          t-statistic N/A -0.88 N/A -0.29 N/A 0.10
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.41   N/A 0.79   N/A 0.92
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and forming groups of programs (thirds,  fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+2 = 1997).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of seven comparisons (1995 vs. 1997, 1996 vs. 1998, 1997 vs. 1999, 1998 vs. 2000, 1999 vs. 2001, 2000 vs. 2002 and 2001 vs. 2003), so there are six degrees of freedom for the t-test. Some average differences of the top and bottom groups may not equal the difference of the averages for the groups due to rounding.  N/A denotes not applicable. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.