Table 5. Comparison of Actual Price Reaction to the Release of 2005 USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts to the Price Reaction Predicted by Historical Relationships over 1970-2004
                   
Corn Soybeans
Actual Predicted Actual Predicted
Month Price Reaction Price Reaction   Price Reaction Price Reaction
---%--- ---%---
August 2005 -3.0 -0.3 -0.9 1.0
September 2005 -2.8 -1.8 -2.0 -0.6
October 2005 0.6 0.8 2.6 1.3
November 2005 -0.8 -0.5   -1.3 -0.1
Note: The predicted price reaction is computed using a regression model of the relationship between market surprise and actual price reaction over 1970-2004.  Similar models for 1970-2005 are presented in Figures 21 and 22.