Table 39. Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Non-Overlapping Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995-2004 Crop Years, Commercial Storage Costs
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+2   in year t in year t+2   in year t in year t+2
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.50 2.18 6.32 5.84 328 313
Middle Third 2.32 2.18 5.95 5.78 311 310
Bottom Third 2.11 2.14 5.69 5.72 292 312
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.40 0.03 0.62 0.12 37 1
          t-statistic N/A 0.83 N/A 1.07 N/A 0.30
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.43 N/A 0.32 N/A 0.77
Top Fourth 2.55 2.17 6.40 5.87 333 314
Second Fourth 2.37 2.21 6.03 5.78 314 312
Third Fourth 2.27 2.13 5.88 5.76 306 309
Bottom Fourth 2.06 2.17 5.66 5.73 289 313
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.48 0.01 0.75 0.14 44 1
          t-statistic N/A 0.11 N/A 1.26 N/A 0.25
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.91 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.81
Top 2 Programs 2.70 2.15 6.67 5.94 350 319
Bottom 2 Programs  1.95 2.22 5.51 5.94 280 312
  Top 2 minus Bottom 2
          Average 0.75 -0.06 1.17 0.00 70 6
          t-statistic N/A -0.80 N/A -0.02 N/A 0.67
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.45   N/A 0.99   N/A 0.53
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and forming groups of programs (thirds,  fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+2 = 1997).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of eight comparisons (1995 vs. 1997, 1996 vs. 1998, 1997 vs. 1999, 1998 vs. 2000, 1999 vs. 2001, 2000 vs. 2002, 2001 vs. 2003, and 2002 vs. 2004), so there are seven degrees of freedom for the t-test. Some average differences of the top and bottom groups may not equal the difference of the averages for the groups due to rounding.  N/A denotes "Not Applicable."