Table 40.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance Between the 1995-1998 and 2000-2004 Crop Years by Groups, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, Commercial Storage Costs
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Group Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in 1995-1998 1995-1998 2000-2004   1995-1998 2000-2004   1995-1998 2000-2004
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.63 2.18 6.59 5.82 332 323
Middle Third 2.51 2.19 6.48 5.66 323 313
Bottom Third 2.42 2.17 6.35 5.54 316 315
  Top Third minus Bottom Third 0.21 0.00 0.24 0.27 16 8
Top Fourth 2.67 2.23 6.62 5.87 335 323
Second Fourth 2.54 2.13 6.52 5.59 324 313
Third Fourth 2.47 2.20 6.40 5.67 320 319
Bottom Fourth 2.39 2.15 6.34 5.53 315 312
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth 0.28 0.08 0.28 0.34 20 10
Top Two  Programs 2.76 2.31 6.68 5.94 341 338
Bottom Two Programs  2.36 2.13 6.33 5.48 314 310
  Top Two minus Bottom Two 0.40 0.18   0.35 0.46   27 28
Note: Results are shown only for the 15 advisory programs included in all 10 years of the AgMAS corn and soybean evaluations. The selection strategy consists of sorting the 15 programs by average net advisory price over 1995-1998 and forming groups of programs (thirds, fourths, top two and bottom two).  Next, the average net advisory price for each group is computed for 1995-1998. Then, the average net advisory price of the group formed over 1995-1998 is computed for 2000-2004.   Since there is only one pair of observations in each case, statistical tests cannot be applied.