Table 13.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Corn, 1996 vs. 1997
           
1996 1997
Corn 1996 Corn 1997 1997
Advisory Program/ Price Rank Price Rank Return
  Selection Strategy ($/bu.)   ($/bu.)   (%)
Ag Resource 3.12 1 2.07 21 -11.83
Freese-Notis 2.87 2 2.22 16 -4.84
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 2.83 3 2.43 4 4.20
Ag Review 2.76 4 2.57 2 9.80
Allendale (futures & options) 2.75 5 2.38 7 2.12
Agri-Mark 2.73 6 2.13 19 -8.97
Brock (cash-only) 2.70 7 2.34 8 0.43
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 2.68 8 2.32 12 -0.43
Pro Farmer (hedge) 2.67 9 2.28 14 -2.17
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 2.65 10 2.33 10 0.00
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 2.65 11 2.34 9 0.43
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 2.64 12 2.19 17 -6.20
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 2.63 13 2.33 11 0.00
Ag Line by Doane (hedge) 2.61 14 2.29 13 -1.73
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 2.58 15 2.41 5 3.38
Zwicker Cycle Letter 2.56 16 2.40 6 2.96
Progressive Ag. 2.53 17 2.26 15 -3.05
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 2.49 18 2.00 22 -15.27
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 2.46 19 2.09 20 -10.87
Top Farmer Intelligence 2.44 20 2.15 18 -8.04
Brock (hedge) 2.39 21 2.64 1 12.49
Allendale (futures only) 2.08 22 2.55 3 9.02
  Top third (#1 - #7) 2.82 2.31 11.0 -1.30
  Middle third (#8 - #14) 2.65 2.30 12.3 -1.44
  Bottom third (#15 - #22) 2.44 2.31 11.3 -1.17
  Top quartile (#1 - #5) 2.87 2.33 10.0 -0.11
  Second quartile (#6 - #10) 2.69 2.28 12.6 -2.23
  Third quartile (#11 - #16) 2.61 2.33 10.2 -0.19
  Bottom quartile (#17 - #22) 2.40   2.28 13.2 -2.62
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by pricing performance for the first year of the analysis (1996) and grouping programs into quantiles (halves and thirds).  Then, average performance of the same groups is computed for the second year of the analysis (1997). Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark.