Table 15.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Soybeans, 1996 vs. 1997
           
1996 1997
Soybean 1996 Soybean 1997 1997
Advisory Program/ Price Rank Price Rank Return
  Selection Strategy ($/bu.)   ($/bu.)   (%)
Progressive Ag. 7.80 1 6.65 4 5.41
Zwicker Cycle Letter 7.67 2 6.59 5 4.50
Pro Farmer (hedge) 7.49 3 6.47 6 2.66
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 7.46 4 6.14 18 -2.57
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 7.40 5 6.32 11 0.32
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 7.40 6 6.14 19 -2.57
Ag Review 7.37 7 6.19 15 -1.76
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 7.37 8 6.22 14 -1.28
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 7.31 9 6.29 13 -0.16
Allendale (futures only) 7.30 10 6.67 3 5.71
Ag Resource 7.29 11 6.47 7 2.66
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 7.28 12 6.33 9 0.48
Brock (cash-only) 7.20 13 6.31 12 0.16
Agri-Mark 7.18 14 6.68 2 5.86
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 7.13 15 6.16 16 -2.25
Freese-Notis 7.13 16 6.15 17 -2.41
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 7.13 17 6.33 10 0.48
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 7.06 18 6.35 8 0.79
Brock (hedge) 6.99 19 6.93 1 9.53
Top Farmer Intelligence 6.84 20 6.08 20 -3.55
  Top third (#1 - #7) 7.54 6.39 10.5 1.29
  Middle third (#8 - #14) 7.30 6.35 10.4 0.83
  Bottom third (#15 - #22) 7.07 6.38 10.6 1.21
  Top quartile (#1 - #5) 7.56 6.43 8.8 2.06
  Second quartile (#6 - #10) 7.35 6.30 12.8 -0.01
  Third quartile (#11 - #16) 7.22 6.39 9.2 1.38
  Bottom quartile (#17 - #22) 7.03   6.37 11.2 0.97
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by pricing performance for the first year of the analysis (1996) and grouping programs into quantiles (halves and thirds).  Then, average performance of the same groups is computed for the second year of the analysis (1997). Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark.