Table 16.  Predictability of the Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price of Advisory Service Programs by Quantile, Corn and Soybeans, Two-Year Average
               
  Corn     Soybeans  
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Rank Return Price Rank Return
 in Year t in year t+1 in year t+1 in year t+1 in year t+1 in year t+1 in year t+1
  ($/bu.)   (%)   ($/bu.)   (%)
Top Third 2.49 10.7 -0.50 6.84 10.3 1.77
Middle Third 2.50 11.6 0.06 6.83 9.9 1.72
Bottom Third 2.43 12.2 -2.82 6.77 12.6 0.91
Top quartile 2.51 10.10 0.21 6.85 9.5 2.09
Second quartile 2.50 11.80 -0.20 6.82 10.4 1.54
Third quartile 2.50 10.45 0.05 6.82 10.8 1.57
Bottom quartile 2.40 13.50 -4.32   6.76 13.0 0.67
Note:  The selection strategy consists of ranking programs by pricing performance in the first year of the analysis (i.e., 1995) and grouping programs by ranks into quantiles (halves and thirds).  Then, average performance of the same groups is calculated for the second year of the analysis. The results presented in the table represent averages across 1996 and 1997.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark.