Table 7.  Pricing Performance Results for 21 Market Advisory Service Programs, Wheat, 1998 Marketing Period
  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Unadjusted Carrying Charges Futures LDP/ Net
Cash Sales Interest Storage Net Cash & Options Brokerage MLG Advisory
Market Advisory Program Price Costs Costs Sales Price Gain Costs Gain Price
---$/bushel---
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 2.40 0.14 0.23 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 2.05
Ag Line by Doane (hedge) 2.24 0.16 0.25 1.82 0.17 0.00 0.02 2.01
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 1 2.43 0.42 0.68 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.02 1.34
Ag Resource 2.21 0.05 0.11 2.05 -0.37 0.03 0.46 2.13
Ag Review 2.31 0.12 0.21 1.98 0.20 0.01 0.08 2.25
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 2.41 0.12 0.19 2.10 0.00 0.00 0.17 2.27
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 2.41 0.12 0.19 2.10 -0.08 0.02 0.09 2.09
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 2.39 0.13 0.20 2.06 0.00 0.00 0.09 2.15
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 2.39 0.13 0.20 2.06 -0.08 0.02 0.09 2.05
Allendale (futures only) 2 2.43 0.45 0.68 1.30 1.36 0.09 0.09 2.65
Brock (cash-only) 2.52 0.07 0.13 2.32 0.00 0.00 0.46 2.77
Brock (hedge) 2.67 0.02 0.06 2.59 0.33 0.05 0.46 3.33
Freese-Notis 2.61 0.09 0.16 2.36 0.00 0.00 0.18 2.54
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 2.35 0.14 0.23 1.98 0.00 0.00 0.42 2.40
Pro Farmer (hedge) 2.35 0.14 0.23 1.98 0.09 0.02 0.42 2.47
Progressive Ag 2.43 0.01 0.04 2.38 -0.22 0.02 0.39 2.54
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 2.63 0.06 0.11 2.46 0.08 0.03 0.11 2.62
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 2.74 0.07 0.13 2.54 0.00 0.00 0.17 2.71
Top Farmer Intelligence 2.28 0.32 0.51 1.45 0.71 0.09 0.17 2.23
Utterback 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 -0.26 0.05 0.10 2.79
Zwicker Cycle Letter 2.42 0.12 0.19 2.11 -0.04 0.02 0.17 2.22
Descriptive Statistics:
  Average 2.46 0.14 0.23 2.09 0.09 0.02 0.20 2.36
  Median 2.41 0.12 0.19 2.06 0.00 0.02 0.17 2.27
  Minimum 2.21 0.00 0.00 1.30 -0.37 0.00 0.02 1.34
  Maximum 3.00 0.45 0.68 3.00 1.36 0.09 0.46 3.33
  Range 0.79 0.45 0.68 1.70 1.73 0.09 0.44 1.99
  Standard Deviation 0.18 0.12 0.18 0.41 0.36 0.03 0.16 0.40
Market Benchmark Price 2.87 0.04 0.07 2.76 0.00 0.00 0.13 2.90
                 
                 
Notes:  Net cash sales price is calculated as (1) - (2) - (3). Net advisory price is calculated as (4) + (5) - (6) + (7), and therefore, is stated on a harvest equivalent basis.  The market benchmark price is stated on a harvest equivalent basis.  LDP stands for loan deficiency payment and MLG stands for marketing loan gain. The market benchmark price is the average daily cash price for the two-year marketing window from June 1997 through May 1999.
1 At the time of analysis for this report, Ag Profit by Hjort Associates had not made any cash sales of 1998 wheat. In order to complete the analysis, all remaining cash quantities are sold as of May 31, 2000.  Future AgMAS pricing reports will update and revise results for this program when the final pricing decisions are made.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, Allendale (futures only) had not made any cash sales of 1998 wheat. However, the crop is fully hedged using wheat futures.  In order to complete the analysis, the futures positions are closed and all remaining cash quantities sold as of May 31, 2000.  Future AgMAS pricing reports will update and revise results for this program when the final pricing decisions are made.