Table 16.  Predictability of Market Advisory Service Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Non-Overlapping Marketing Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, Average for 1995 vs. 1997, 1996 vs. 1998 and 1997 vs. 1999
                                   
    Corn         Soybeans         50/50 Revenue    
Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Rank Return Price Rank Return Revenue Rank Return
 in Year t in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2   in year t+2  
Corn Soybeans Revenue
---$/bu.--- ---percent--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent--- ---$/acre ---percent---
1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999
Top Third 2.19 12 -4.51 6.06 11 -0.44 305 10 -1.62 2.22 12.67 -5.14 2.16 10.71 -3.88 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.36 10.17 0.94 5.76 11.00 -1.81 #REF! #REF! #REF! 308 10 -1 302 10 -3 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Middle Third 2.23 10 -2.67 6.04 11 -0.82 298 13 -3.84 2.27 11.00 -2.73 2.18 9.86 -2.61 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.30 10.83 -0.09 5.78 11.00 -1.55 #REF! #REF! #REF! 300 14 -3 297 13 -4 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Bottom Third 2.26 10 -1.37 6.15 9 0.90 313 8 0.73 2.41 6.86 3.04 2.12 13.63 -5.77 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.41 9.14 1.64 5.88 9.57 0.16 #REF! #REF! #REF! 318 7 2 307 9 -1 #REF! #REF! #REF!
  Top Third - Bottom Third
          Average -0.08 1 -3.14 -0.09 1 -1.34 -8 2 -2.35
          t-statistic -0.68 0.33 -0.62 -2.13 6.06 -2.11 -3.02 2.59 -2.97
         Two-tail p-value 0.62 0.80 0.65 0.28 0.10 0.28 0.20 0.23 0.21
Top Fourth 2.20 11 -3.86 6.11 9 0.37 307 9 -1.15 2.20 13.25 -6.16 2.21 8.20 -1.57 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.47 7.00 2.61 5.75 11.20 -1.87 #REF! #REF! #REF! 308 10 -1 305 8 -2 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Second Fourth 2.21 11 -3.58 6.03 11 -1.04 298 13 -3.92 2.27 10.60 -3.03 2.15 11.20 -4.14 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.28 12.20 -0.40 5.78 10.00 -1.69 #REF! #REF! #REF! 304 11 -2 293 15 -6 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Third Fourth 2.18 13 -4.80 5.97 12 -1.98 299 13 -3.58 2.25 12.60 -3.66 2.11 13.83 -5.94 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.27 10.80 -0.49 5.67 13.80 -3.46 #REF! #REF! #REF! 299 15 -4 299 12 -4 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Bottom Fourth 2.32 8 0.93 6.24 8 2.51 319 6 2.61 2.49 4.20 6.43 2.15 12.17 -4.58 #REF! #REF! #REF! 6.44 9.40 2.11 6.04 7.00 2.91 #REF! #REF! #REF! 325 4 5 312 7 1 #REF! #REF! #REF!
  Top Fourth - Bottom Fourth
          Average -0.12 3 -4.79 -0.13 1 -2.14 -12 3 -3.76
          t-statistic -0.66 0.39 -0.61 -0.83 -0.83 -0.83 -2.28 1.44 -2.19
        Two-tail  p-value 0.63   0.76   0.65   0.56   0.83   0.57   0.26   0.39   0.27  
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+2 = 1997). Return correlations are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price). Three stars indicates significance at the 1% level, two stars indicates significance at the 5% level, and one star indicates significance at the 10% level. Some average differences of the quantiles may not equal the difference of the averages for the quantiles due to rounding.
Dif Thirds -0.19 5.81 -8.18 0.04 -2.91 1.90 #REF! #REF! #REF! -0.05 1.02 -0.71 -0.13 1.43 -1.98 #REF! #REF! #REF! -10.14 2.52 -3.15 -5.10 1.12 -1.56 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p
Price -0.08 0.11 -0.67568 0.621712 Price -0.09 0.04 -2.12968 0.279473 Price -7.62 2.52 -3.01887 0.203638
Rank 1.45 4.36 0.332423 0.795689 Rank 1.23 0.20 6.058824 0.104134 Rank 1.82 0.70 2.59322 0.234308
Return -3.14 5.04 -0.6235 0.64507 Return -1.34 0.64 -2.11212 0.281507 Return -2.35 0.79 -2.96511 0.207077
Dif Fourths -0.29 9.05 -12.60 0.06 -3.97 3.01 #REF! #REF! #REF! 0.03 -2.40 0.50 -0.29 4.20 -4.78 #REF! #REF! #REF! -17.45 5.55 -5.48 -6.80 1.00 -2.05 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p Mean SE t-stat p
Price -0.12 0.18 -0.6632 0.627197 Price -0.13 0.16 -0.825 0.56086 Price -12.13 5.32 -2.277 0.263443
Rank 2.54 6.51 0.390525 0.762979 Rank 0.90 3.30 0.272727 0.830499 Rank 3.28 2.28 1.43956 0.386511
Return -4.79 7.80 -0.61387 0.649505 Return -2.14 2.64 -0.81082 0.56627 Return -3.76 1.72 -2.19321 0.272342