Table A5.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Soybeans, 1996 vs. 1997
           
1996 1996 1997 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean
  Selection Strategy Price Rank Price Rank Return
---$/bu.--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent---
1996 1997 WW WL LW LL
Progressive Ag. 7.80 1 6.65 4 5.41 1 1 1 0 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 7.67 2 6.59 5 4.50 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 7.49 3 6.47 7 2.66 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 7.46 4 6.14 19 -2.57 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 7.40 5 6.32 11 0.32 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 7.40 6 6.14 18 -2.57 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Review 7.37 7 6.19 15 -1.76 1 0 0 1 0 0
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 7.37 8 6.22 14 -1.28 1 0 0 1 0 0
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 7.31 9 6.29 13 -0.16 1 0 0 1 0 0
Allendale (futures only) 7.30 10 6.67 3 5.71 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Resource 7.29 11 6.47 6 2.66 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 7.28 12 6.33 9 0.48 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (cash-only) 7.20 13 6.31 12 0.16 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Mark 7.18 14 6.68 2 5.86 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 7.13 15 6.16 16 -2.25 0 0 0 0 0 1
Freese-Notis 7.13 16 6.15 17 -2.41 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 7.13 17 6.33 10 0.48 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 7.06 18 6.35 8 0.79 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (hedge) 6.99 19 6.93 1 9.53 0 1 0 0 1 0
Top Farmer Intelligence 6.84 20 6.08 20 -3.55 0 0 0 0 0 1
4 6 6 4 20
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 7.54 4 6.39 11 1.29
  Middle Third (#7 - #13) 7.30 10 6.35 10 0.83 0.444444
  Bottom Third (#14 - #20) 7.07 17 6.38 11 1.21
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 7.56 3 6.43 9 2.06
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 7.35 8 6.30 13 -0.01
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 7.22 13 6.39 9 1.38
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #20) 7.03 18 6.37 11 0.97
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).