Table A6.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Soybeans, 1997 vs. 1998
           
1997 1997 1998 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean
  Selection Strategy Price Rank Price Rank Return
---$/bu.--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent---
1997 1998 WW WL LW LL
Utterback Marketing Services 6.99 1 6.13 5 4.50 1 1 1 0 0 0
Brock (hedge) 6.93 2 6.58 1 11.59 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Mark 6.68 3 5.71 14 -2.59 1 0 0 1 0 0
Allendale (futures only) 6.67 4 5.90 7 0.68 1 1 1 0 0 0
Progressive Ag. 6.65 5 5.71 15 -2.59 1 0 0 1 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 6.59 6 5.76 12 -1.72 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Resource 6.47 7 6.17 4 5.15 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 6.47 8 5.85 8 -0.17 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 6.35 9 5.55 19 -5.44 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 6.33 10 5.55 18 -5.44 1 0 0 1 0 0
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 6.33 11 5.96 6 1.69 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 6.32 12 5.65 16 -3.65 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brock (cash-only) 6.31 13 5.65 17 -3.65 0 0 0 0 0 1
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 6.29 14 5.74 13 -2.07 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 6.22 15 6.36 2 8.19 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Review 6.19 16 5.11 21 -13.70 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 6.16 17 5.26 20 -10.80 0 0 0 0 0 1
Freese-Notis 6.15 18 5.81 9 -0.86 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 6.14 19 5.77 11 -1.55 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 6.14 20 5.79 10 -1.20 0 1 0 0 1 0
Top Farmer Intelligence 6.08 21 6.32 3 7.56 0 1 0 0 1 0
5 5 5 6 21
  Top Third (#1 - #7) 6.71 4 5.99 8 2.15
  Middle Third (#8 - #14) 6.34 11 5.71 14 -2.67 1.2
  Bottom Third (#15 - #21) 6.15 18 5.77 11 -1.77
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 6.78 3 6.01 8 2.32
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 6.44 8 5.78 12 -1.52
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 6.29 13 5.87 11 0.10
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #21) 6.14 19 5.68 12 -3.42
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1997) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).