Table A7.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, 50/50 Revenue, 1995 vs. 1996
           
1995 1996 1996
Market Advisory Service/ 1995 Revenue 1996 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1995 1996 WW WL LW LL
Agri-Mark 382 1 375 7 2.16 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Resource 377 2 407 1 10.35 1 1 1 0 0 0
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 332 3 331 21 -10.32 1 0 0 1 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 332 4 373 11 1.62 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 331 5 369 15 0.54 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 330 6 385 3 4.79 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 329 7 371 12 1.08 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Edge (hedge) 327 8 403 2 9.36 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 326 9 374 8 1.89 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 326 10 355 18 -3.32 1 0 0 1 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 324 11 377 6 2.69 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 323 12 369 14 0.54 0 0 0 0 0 1
Top Farmer Intelligence 319 13 345 19 -6.18 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 315 14 374 9 1.89 0 1 0 0 1 0
Freese-Notis 310 15 385 4 4.79 0 1 0 0 1 0
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 306 16 370 13 0.81 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 301 17 358 17 -2.48 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 297 18 366 16 -0.27 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brock (cash-only) 295 19 373 10 1.62 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Review 292 20 382 5 4.01 0 1 0 0 1 0
Allendale (futures only) 277 21 327 22 -11.54 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brock (hedge) 256 22 344 20 -6.47 0 0 0 0 0 1
7 4 4 7 22
  Top Third (#1 - #7) 345 4 373 10 1.46
  Middle Third (#8 - #14) 323 11 371 11 0.98 3.0625
  Bottom Third (#15 - #22) 292 19 363 13 -1.19
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 351 3 371 11 0.87
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 328 8 378 9 2.76
  Third Fourth (#11 - #16) 316 14 370 11 0.76
  Bottom Fourth (#17 - #22) 286 20 358 15 -2.52
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1996). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).