Table A8.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, 50/50 Revenue, 1996 vs. 1997
           
1996 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ 1996 Revenue 1997 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1996 1997 WW WL LW LL
Ag Resource 407 1 295 17 -4.96 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 385 2 317 5 2.23 1 1 1 0 0 0
Freese-Notis 385 3 298 16 -3.95 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Review 382 4 324 3 4.42 1 1 1 0 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 377 5 310 11 0.00 1 0 0 1 0 0
Agri-Mark 375 6 304 14 -1.95 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 374 7 310 10 0.00 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 374 8 306 13 -1.30 1 0 0 1 0 0
Progressive Ag. 374 9 313 6 0.96 1 1 1 0 0 0
Brock (cash-only) 373 10 311 9 0.32 1 1 1 0 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 373 11 321 4 3.49 0 1 0 0 1 0
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 371 12 300 15 -3.28 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 370 13 310 12 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 369 14 311 7 0.32 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 366 15 311 8 0.32 0 1 0 0 1 0
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 358 16 291 19 -6.32 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 355 17 283 20 -9.11 0 0 0 0 0 1
Top Farmer Intelligence 345 18 292 18 -5.98 0 0 0 0 0 1
Brock (hedge) 344 19 346 1 10.99 0 1 0 0 1 0
Allendale (futures only) 327 20 334 2 7.46 0 1 0 0 1 0
5 5 5 5 20
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 385 4 308 11 -0.70
  Middle Third (#7 - #13) 373 10 310 10 0.03 1
  Bottom Third (#14 - #20) 352 17 310 11 -0.33
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 387 3 309 10 -0.45
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 374 8 309 10 -0.39
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 370 13 311 9 0.17
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #20) 346 18 309 12 -0.60
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).