Table A15.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, 50/50 Revenue, 1996 vs. 1998
           
1996 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ 1996 Revenue 1998 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
1996 1998 WW WL LW LL
Ag Resource 407 1 316 3 1.92 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 385 2 304 10 -1.95 1 1 1 0 0 0
Freese-Notis 385 3 308 6 -0.65 1 1 1 0 0 0
Ag Review 382 4 293 15 -5.64 1 0 0 1 0 0
Pro Farmer (hedge) 377 5 306 7 -1.30 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Mark 375 6 287 18 -7.71 1 0 0 1 0 0
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 374 7 304 9 -1.95 1 1 1 0 0 0
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 374 8 293 16 -5.64 1 0 0 1 0 0
Progressive Ag. 374 9 284 19 -8.76 1 0 0 1 0 0
Brock (cash-only) 373 10 295 13 -4.96 1 0 0 1 0 0
Zwicker Cycle Letter 373 11 292 17 -5.98 0 0 0 0 0 1
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 371 12 296 12 -4.62 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 370 13 316 4 1.92 0 1 0 0 1 0
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 369 14 294 14 -5.30 0 0 0 0 0 1
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 366 15 297 11 -4.28 0 0 0 0 0 1
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 358 16 306 8 -1.30 0 1 0 0 1 0
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 355 17 282 20 -9.47 0 0 0 0 0 1
Top Farmer Intelligence 345 18 313 5 0.96 0 1 0 0 1 0
Brock (hedge) 344 19 340 1 9.24 0 1 0 0 1 0
Allendale (futures only) 327 20 320 2 3.17 0 1 0 0 1 0
5 5 5 5 20
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 385 4 302 10 -2.56
  Middle Third (#7 - #13) 373 10 297 13 -4.29 1
  Bottom Third (#14 - #20) 352 17 307 9 -1.00
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 387 3 305 8 -1.52
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 374 8 293 15 -5.80
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 370 13 299 12 -3.65
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #20) 346 18 312 7 0.52
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).