Table A12.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, Wheat, 1995 vs. 1996 Crop Years
           
1995 1996 1996
Market Advisory Service/ 1995 Revenue 1996 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
Ag Review 212 1 137 16 -9.07
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 204 2 155 6 3.28
Pro Farmer (hedge) 197 3 143 14 -4.78
Ag Resource 190 4 188 1 22.58
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 185 5 170 2 12.52
Harris Weather/Elliott Advisory 185 6 139 15 -7.62
Agri-Edge (cash-only) 181 7 113 20 -28.32
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 180 8 159 4 5.83
Agri-Edge (hedge) 179 9 118 19 -24.00
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 177 10 156 5 3.92
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 176 11 146 11 -2.70
Zwicker Cycle Letter 175 12 104 22 -36.62
Grain Field Report 171 13 137 17 -9.07
Freese-Notis 165 14 168 3 11.33
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 163 15 148 10 -1.34
Brock (cash-only) 155 16 152 8 1.32
Allendale (futures only) 150 17 112 21 -29.21
Brock (hedge) 150 18 143 13 -4.78
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 150 19 146 12 -2.70
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 144 20 153 7 1.98
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 136 21 149 9 -0.67
Top Farmer Intelligence 135 22 137 18 -9.07
  Top Third (#1 - #7) 193 4 149 11 -1.63
  Middle Third (#8 - #14) 175 11 141 12 -7.33
  Bottom Third (#15 - #22) 148 19 143 12 -5.56
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 198 3 159 8 4.91
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 180 8 137 13 -10.04
  Third Fourth (#11 - #16) 168 14 143 12 -6.18
  Bottom Fourth (#17 - #22) 144 20 140 13 -7.41
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1996). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).