Table A13.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, Wheat, 1996 vs. 1997 Crop Years
           
1996 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ 1996 Revenue 1997 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
Ag Resource 188 1 87 19 -87.64
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 170 2 185 8 -12.20
Freese-Notis 168 3 210 3 0.48
Progressive Ag. 163 4 158 11 -27.97
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 159 5 143 13 -37.95
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 156 6 187 7 -11.12
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 155 7 114 18 -60.61
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 153 8 143 12 -37.95
Brock (cash-only) 152 9 216 2 3.29
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 149 10 143 14 -37.95
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 148 11 204 4 -2.42
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 146 12 143 15 -37.95
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 146 13 194 6 -7.45
Brock (hedge) 143 14 227 1 8.26
Pro Farmer (hedge) 143 15 184 9 -12.74
Ag Review 137 16 128 17 -49.03
Top Farmer Intelligence 137 17 166 10 -23.03
Allendale (futures only) 1 112 18 201 5 -3.90
Zwicker Cycle Letter 104 19 143 16 -37.95
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 167 4 162 10 -29.40
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 151 10 161 11 -28.93
  Bottom Third (#13 - #19) 132 16 178 9 -17.98
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 172 3 160 10 -31.83
  Second Fourth (#5 - #9) 155 7 161 10 -28.87
  Third Fourth (#10 - #14) 146 12 182 8 -15.50
  Bottom Fourth (#15 - #19) 127 17 164 11 -25.33
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1997 net advisory price for Allendale (futures only) was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.