Table A14.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, Wheat, 1997 vs. 1998 Crop Years
           
1997 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ 1997 Revenue 1998 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
Utterback Marketing Services 253 1 142 2 -4.14
Brock (hedge) 227 2 170 1 13.86
Brock (cash-only) 216 3 141 3 -4.85
Freese-Notis 210 4 130 7 -12.97
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 204 5 138 4 -7.00
Allendale (futures only) 1 201 6 135 5 -9.19
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 194 7 134 6 -9.94
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 187 8 122 10 -19.32
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 185 9 105 18 -34.33
Pro Farmer (hedge) 184 10 126 9 -16.09
Top Farmer Intelligence 166 11 114 13 -26.10
Progressive Ag. 158 12 129 8 -13.74
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 143 13 116 11 -24.36
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 143 14 107 17 -32.44
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 143 15 110 15 -29.67
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 143 16 105 19 -34.33
Zwicker Cycle Letter 143 17 113 14 -26.98
Ag Review 128 18 115 12 -25.23
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 2 114 19 68 20 -77.77
Ag Resource 87 20 109 16 -30.59
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 219 4 143 4 -4.05
  Middle Third (#7 - #13) 174 10 121 11 -20.55
  Bottom Third (#14 - #20) 129 17 104 16 -36.71
  Top Fourth (#1 - #5) 222 3 144 3 -3.02
  Second Fourth (#6 - #10) 190 8 124 10 -17.77
  Third Fourth (#11 - #15) 151 13 115 13 -25.26
  Bottom Fourth (#16 - #20) 123 18 102 16 -38.98
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1997) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only preliminary 1997 and 1998 net advisory prices for Allendale (futures only) were available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1998 net advisory price for Ag Profit by Hjort Associates was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.