Table A15.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Wheat, 1995 vs. 1997 Crop Years
           
1995 1995 1997 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
  Selection Strategy Price Rank Price Rank Return
---$/bu.--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent---
Ag Review 4.71 1 1.97 16 -49.13
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 4.54 2 1.75 17 -60.98
Pro Farmer (hedge) 4.38 3 2.83 9 -12.91
Ag Resource 4.21 4 1.34 18 -87.67
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 4.11 5 2.85 8 -12.21
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 4.00 6 2.20 12 -38.09
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 3.94 7 2.87 7 -11.51
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 3.91 8 2.20 14 -38.09
Zwicker Cycle Letter 3.89 9 2.20 15 -38.09
Freese-Notis 3.66 10 3.23 3 0.31
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 3.63 11 3.15 4 -2.20
Brock (cash-only) 3.45 12 3.32 2 3.06
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 3.34 13 2.98 6 -7.75
Brock (hedge) 3.33 14 3.49 1 8.05
Allendale (futures only) 1 3.32 15 3.09 5 -4.12
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 3.21 16 2.20 11 -38.09
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 3.03 17 2.20 13 -38.09
Top Farmer Intelligence 3.01 18 2.55 10 -23.33
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 4.33 4 2.16 13 -43.50
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 3.75 10 2.83 8 -14.42
  Bottom Third (#13 - #18) 3.21 16 2.75 8 -17.22
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 4.46 3 1.97 15 -52.67
  Second Fourth (#5 - #8) 3.99 7 2.53 10 -24.97
  Third Fourth (#9 - #13) 3.59 11 2.98 6 -8.93
  Bottom Fourth (#14 - #18) 3.18 16 2.71 8 -19.12
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1997 net advisory price for Allendale (futures only) was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.