Table A16.  Predictability of Average Price, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Price by Quantile, Wheat, 1996 vs. 1998 Crop Years
           
1996 1996 1998 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
  Selection Strategy Price Rank Price Rank Return
---$/bu.--- ---$/bu.--- ---percent---
Ag Resource 4.94 1 2.13 15 -30.86
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 4.47 2 2.05 17 -34.69
Freese-Notis 4.42 3 2.54 6 -13.25
Progressive Ag. 4.29 4 2.54 7 -13.25
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 4.18 5 2.09 16 -32.75
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 4.09 6 2.40 9 -18.92
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 1 4.08 7 1.34 19 -77.20
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 4.03 8 2.27 10 -24.49
Brock (cash-only) 3.99 9 2.77 2 -4.59
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 3.91 10 2.15 14 -29.92
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 3.90 11 2.71 3 -6.78
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 3.85 12 2.62 5 -10.15
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 3.84 13 2.05 18 -34.69
Brock (hedge) 3.76 14 3.33 1 13.83
Pro Farmer (hedge) 3.76 15 2.47 8 -16.05
Ag Review 3.60 16 2.25 11 -25.38
Top Farmer Intelligence 3.60 17 2.23 12 -26.27
Allendale (futures only) 2 2.95 18 2.65 4 -9.02
Zwicker Cycle Letter 2.74 19 2.22 13 -26.72
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 4.40 4 2.29 12 -23.96
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 3.96 10 2.31 9 -25.52
  Bottom Third (#13 - #19) 3.46 16 2.46 10 -17.76
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 4.53 3 2.32 11 -23.01
  Second Fourth (#5 - #9) 4.07 7 2.17 11 -31.59
  Third Fourth (#10 - #14) 3.85 12 2.57 8 -13.54
  Bottom Fourth (#15 - #19) 3.33 17 2.36 10 -20.69
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1998 net advisory price for Ag Profit by Hjort Associates was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1998 net advisory price for Allendale (futures only) was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.