Table A17.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, Wheat, 1995 vs. 1997 Crop Years
           
1995 1997 1997
Market Advisory Service/ 1995 Revenue 1997 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
Ag Review 212 1 128 16 -49.03
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 204 2 114 17 -60.61
Pro Farmer (hedge) 197 3 184 9 -12.74
Ag Resource 190 4 87 18 -87.64
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 185 5 185 8 -12.20
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 180 6 143 12 -37.95
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 177 7 187 7 -11.12
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 176 8 143 14 -37.95
Zwicker Cycle Letter 175 9 143 15 -37.95
Freese-Notis 165 10 210 3 0.48
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 163 11 204 4 -2.42
Brock (cash-only) 155 12 216 2 3.29
Allendale (futures only) 1 150 13 201 5 -3.90
Brock (hedge) 150 14 227 1 8.26
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 150 15 194 6 -7.45
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 144 16 143 11 -37.95
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 136 17 143 13 -37.95
Top Farmer Intelligence 135 18 166 10 -23.03
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 195 4 140 13 -43.36
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 169 10 184 8 -14.28
  Bottom Third (#13 - #18) 144 16 179 8 -17.00
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 201 3 128 15 -52.51
  Second Fourth (#5 - #8) 180 7 165 10 -24.80
  Third Fourth (#9 - #13) 162 11 195 6 -8.10
  Bottom Fourth (#14 - #18) 143 16 175 8 -19.62
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1995) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1997). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1997 net advisory price for Allendale (futures only) was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.