Table A18.  Predictability of Average Revenue, Rank, and Return above Market Benchmark Revenue by Quantile, Wheat, 1996 vs. 1998 Crop Years
           
1996 1998 1998
Market Advisory Service/ 1996 Revenue 1998 Revenue Revenue
  Selection Strategy Revenue Rank Revenue Rank Return
---$/acre--- ---$/acre--- ---percent---
Ag Resource 188 1 109 15 -30.59
Ag Line by Doane (cash-only) 170 2 105 17 -34.33
Freese-Notis 168 3 130 6 -12.97
Progressive Ag. 163 4 129 7 -13.74
Agri-Visor Aggressive Hedge 159 5 107 16 -32.44
Pro Farmer (cash-only) 156 6 122 9 -19.32
Ag Profit by Hjort Associates 1 155 7 68 19 -77.77
Agri-Visor Aggressive Cash 153 8 116 10 -24.36
Brock (cash-only) 152 9 141 2 -4.85
Agri-Visor Basic Cash 149 10 110 14 -29.67
Stewart-Peterson Strictly Cash 148 11 138 3 -7.00
Agri-Visor Basic Hedge 146 12 105 18 -34.33
Stewart-Peterson Advisory Reports 146 13 134 5 -9.94
Brock (hedge) 143 14 170 1 13.86
Pro Farmer (hedge) 143 15 126 8 -16.09
Ag Review 137 16 115 11 -25.23
Top Farmer Intelligence 137 17 114 12 -26.10
Allendale (futures only) 2 112 18 135 4 -9.19
Zwicker Cycle Letter 104 19 113 13 -26.98
0
  Top Third (#1 - #6) 167 4 117 12 -23.90
  Middle Third (#7 - #12) 151 10 113 11 -29.66
  Bottom Third (#13 - #19) 132 16 130 8 -14.24
  Top Fourth (#1 - #4) 172 3 118 11 -22.90
  Second Fourth (#5 - #9) 155 7 111 11 -31.75
  Third Fourth (#10 - #14) 146 12 131 8 -13.41
  Bottom Fourth (#15 - #19) 127 17 121 10 -20.72
Note:  The selection strategy consists of sorting services by pricing performance in the first year of the pair (1996) and grouping services by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average pricing performance for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average pricing performance of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (1998). Pricing performance measures (rank, price, and return) are compared only for services with track records in both years.  Returns are based on the 24-month average cash price benchmark, with the return for each service computed as the continuously-compounded rate of return (natural logarithm of the ratio of net advisory price to the benchmark price).
1 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1998 net advisory price for Ag Profit by Hjort Associates was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.
2 At the time of analysis for this report, only a preliminary 1998 net advisory price for Allendale (futures only) was available.  See for Jirik, Good, Irwin, Jackson and Martines-Filho (2000) for complete details.