Table 26.  Predictability of Market Advisory Program Performance by Quantiles Between Pairs of Adjacent Crop Years, Corn, Soybeans and 50/50 Revenue, 1995-2000 Crop Years
                 
Corn Soybeans 50/50 Revenue
Average Average Average Average Average Average
Performance Quantile Price Price Price Price Revenue Revenue
 in Year t in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1   in year t in year t+1
---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per bushel (harvest equivalent)--- ---$ per acre (harvest equivalent)---
Top Third 2.65 2.32 6.72 6.29 341 324
Middle Third 2.46 2.27 6.32 6.04 321 313
Bottom Third 2.23 2.18 6.05 6.00 302 310
  Top Third minus Bottom Third
          Average 0.42 0.14 0.68 0.29 38 14
          t-statistic N/A 3.85 N/A 2.28 N/A 2.85
         Two-tail p-value N/A 0.02 N/A 0.09 N/A 0.05
Top Fourth 2.70 2.36 6.81 6.34 346 327
Second Fourth 2.50 2.26 6.42 6.09 325 315
Third Fourth 2.41 2.24 6.25 6.07 318 313
Bottom Fourth 2.19 2.17 6.01 5.95 299 309
  Top Fourth minus Bottom Fourth
          Average 0.31 0.19 0.41 0.39 26 18
          t-statistic N/A 4.04 N/A 2.24 N/A 2.76
        Two-tail  p-value N/A 0.02   N/A 0.09   N/A 0.05
Note: The selection strategy consists of sorting programs by net advisory price in the first  year of the pair (e.g., t = 1995) and grouping programs by quantiles (thirds and fourths).  Next, the average net advisory price for each quantile is computed for the first year of the pair. Then, the average net advisory price of the quantiles formed in the first year is computed for the second year of the pair (e.g., t+1 = 1996).  Next, the average net advisory price for the second year is averaged across the comparisons. There are a total of five comparisons (1995 vs. 1996, 1996 vs. 1997, 1997 vs. 1998, 19998 vs. 1999 and 1999 vs. 2000), so there are four degrees of freedom for the t-test.. Some average differences of the top and bottom quantiles may not equal the difference of the averages for the quantiles due to rounding. N/A denotes not applicable. Two stars indicates significance at the one percent level and one star indicates significance at the five percent level.