NCCC-134
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Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint
William G. Tomek and Robert J. Myers
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Discussion: Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint
David A. Bessler
Year: 1993
 

Abstract

I congratulate Professors Tomek and Myers on a fine review of "structural" and "time series" methods as applied to the econometric analysis of agricultural commodity prices. Further, I second their list of recommendations for improved practice in the field of price analysis. My discussion covers two points. First, I discuss their paper from the perspective of Kuhn's model of "Scientific Revolutions". Perhaps the two major modeling efforts described in their paper can be understood as alternative paradigms. Viewing the subject from this perspective may help us see the future of applied price analysis. Second, I comment on their use of the word structure. I argue that it will be difficult for us to obtain structure from either Tomek and Myers' "structural models" or their "time series" models. This may show up in our work as fragile parameter estimates and is due to the "omitted variables" problem. While I offer no solution to the problem, I make one suggestion which may help in some settings.

 
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Analysis of Producer Pricing Methods
Ted Schroeder and Barry Goodwin
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Dynamic Relationships in the U.S. Lamb Marketing Channel
Rodney Jones, Wayne D. Purcell, and Anya McGuirk
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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The Forecasting of Prices and Protein Premiums for PNW Hard Red Winter and Dark Northern Spring Wheat
John Carlson, David Bullock, Jim Johnson, Steve Stauber, and Charles McGuire
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Hedging with Commodity Options and Safety-First Rules
James Vercammen and Victor Gaspar
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market
Raymond M. Leuthold, Philip Garcia, and Richard Lu
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Sources and Structure of Profit Risk in Cattle Feeding
Stephen R. Koontz and James N. Trapp
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Storage Hedging: What's a Merchandiser to Do?
Brian D. Adam, Kim Anderson, and Roger Sahs
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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The Cost of Forward Contracting Wheat
B. Wade Brorsen, John Coombs, and Kim Anderson
Year: 1993
 

Abstract

One of the basic principles of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. In regard to forward contracting, we might expect the same. A farmer who forward contracts wheat is receiving a service. The farmer is protected from price risk. The grain company takes care of paperwork, default risk, futures commission, margin calls, and basis risk. However, the grain company also benefits because the grain company has a known source of grain at a known price. Thus, economic theory cannot say for certain that a farmer who always forward contracts will, on average, receive less than a farmer who always sells at harvest. Barkley and Schroeder derive a theoretical model of forward contracting with live cattle and argue that who pays the cost of forward contracting is an question. Therefore, this paper reports a study of Gulf forward basis bids for hard red winter wheat which sought to determine what on average a farmer is paying for the service of forward contracting.

 
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The Market Efficiency of Options on Corn Futures
Sergio H. Lence
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Distilling Option Premium Information Into Simple Decision Rules
John D. Lawrence and Seth Meyer
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Mean Reversion in the Corn and Hog Bases
Robert Leads, Carl Zulauf, Scott Irwin, Thomas Jackson, and William Distad
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Grain Markets after the Conservation Reserve Program
Carl Garrison, Brian Adam, B. Wade Brorsen, and Mike Dicks
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Impacts of Elevator Concentration on Local Basis
T. Randall Fortenbery, Hector O. Zapata, and Eugene L. Kunda
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Technical Analysis of Commodity Price Behavior
Joel Fingerman
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Chaos Theory and Its Implications for Research on Futures Markets: A Review of the Literature
John Bernard and Deborah Streeter
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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A Comparison of Traditional Livestock Auctions, Teleauctions, and Satellite Video Auctions: Price Differences Between Markets
Beth Adams and Steven C. Turner
Year: 1993
 

Abstract

Research was conducted comparing the price differences observed in traditional livestock auctions, teleauctions, and satellite video auctions. Several significant price ; diferences were found to exist between the three auction markets. The largest and most significant differences occurred between the teleauctions and the local sale barn suction and between the satellite video auction and the local sale barn auction. Price determination results of this study were found to be similar to previous price determination studies. The price differences are believed to be the result of the differing emphasis that is placed on various cattle characteristics in each of these markets. This study tests the relevant variables which determine the price differences between the three markets using data from each of the cattle auctions.

 
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Methods for Selecting Delivery or Cash Settlement Arrangements for Agricultural Futures Contracts: The Case of Live Cattle
Gerald E. Plato, Richard G. Heifner, and Phil L. Colling
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Do Japanese Soybean Futures Markets Respond to the USDA Crop Production Report?
Phil L. Colling
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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The Importance of Inventory in Short-Run Beef Market Analysis
Kevin J. Bacon, James N. Trapp, Steven Meyer, and Kevin Smith
Year: 1993
 

Abstract

This study of presents evidence that inventories of market ready fed cattle (showlists) have a stronger influence on weekly slaughter cattle prices than do slaughter levels. Three data sources were used to test the relative correlation strength between showlist and price versus slaughter and price. These sources were: a) output from a fed beef market experiential learning simulator; b) publicly reported data; and c) private data from feedlot closeout records.

 
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Forecasting the Probability Distributions of U.S. Harvest Time Corn Prices
Dan O'Brien, Marvin Hayenga, and Bruce Babcock
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Trade Impacts of Soviet Reform: A Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Approach
Dermot J. Hayes, Alexander Kumi, and S. R. Johnson
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Constant or Time-Varying Optimal Hedge Ratios?
Giancarlo Moschini and Satheesh Aradhyula
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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Futures Trading with a Neural Network
Lonnie Hamm, B. Wade Brorsen, and Ramesh Sharda
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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GARCH Option Pricing with Asymmetry
Taehoon Kang and B. Wade Brorsen
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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The Risk Premium in Live Cattle Futures
Emmett Elam and Stephen Njukia
Year: 1993
 
No Abstract Available

 
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