http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/newsletters.html en-us ℗ & © 2010 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois Weekly Outlook is issued each Monday and addresses current and prospective developments in crop and livestock markets. farmdoc: Univesity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Weekly Outlook is issued each Monday and addresses current and prospective developments in crop and livestock markets. Weekly Outlook is issued each Monday and addresses current and prospective developments in crop and livestock markets. farmdoc farmdoc@illinois.edu Darrel Good The USDA's projections of U.S. and world corn and feed grain supply and demand conditions presented in the May WASDE report set the benchmark by which the corn market will judge unfolding events. Those events are continually unfolding, with some of the more important ones to be revealed this summer. The USDA's projections of U.S. and world corn and feed grain supply and demand conditions presented in the May WASDE report set the benchmark by which the corn market will judge unfolding events. Those events are continually unfolding, with some of the more important ones to be revealed this summer. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_051412.mp3 Mon, 14 May 2012 11:30CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices have recently moved in three distinct patterns. These include the patterns for new crop futures, old crop futures, and old crop cash prices. Corn prices have recently moved in three distinct patterns. These include the patterns for new crop futures, old crop futures, and old crop cash prices. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_050712.mp3 Mon, 7 May 2012 11:00CST 4:53 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The beef industry was stung by two negative events in the past two months that have left market traders uncertain about their longer term impacts. For now, market participants are taking a cautious approach until consumers more clearly define if they will reduce beef consumption. The beef industry was stung by two negative events in the past two months that have left market traders uncertain about their longer term impacts. For now, market participants are taking a cautious approach until consumers more clearly define if they will reduce beef consumption. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_043012.mp3 Mon, 30 April 2012 11:45CST 6:25 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2012 corn futures reached a high of $6.735 on August, 31, 2011, declined to a low of $5.23 on March 30, 2012, and are currently trading near $5.40. The steady decline in prices over the past few months reflects, in part, expectations for a large 2012 U.S. corn crop and some re-building of inventories during the year ahead. December 2012 corn futures reached a high of $6.735 on August, 31, 2011, declined to a low of $5.23 on March 30, 2012, and are currently trading near $5.40. The steady decline in prices over the past few months reflects, in part, expectations for a large 2012 U.S. corn crop and some re-building of inventories during the year ahead. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_042312.mp3 Mon, 23 April 2012 11:00CST 4:37 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices declined substantially over the past week. May and December 2012 futures have declined by $.26 and $.22, respectively, following the release of the USDA’s WASDE report on April 10. Corn prices declined substantially over the past week. May and December 2012 futures have declined by $.26 and $.22, respectively, following the release of the USDA’s WASDE report on April 10. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_041612.mp3 Mon, 16 April 2012 11:00CST 4:10 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The nation’s pork producers are largely holding back on expansion even though the industry returned to profitability in the spring of 2011. However, higher feed prices in the past few months as a result of crop damage in South America has increased costs and reduced the profit outlook for 2012. The nation’s pork producers are largely holding back on expansion even though the industry returned to profitability in the spring of 2011. However, higher feed prices in the past few months as a result of crop damage in South America has increased costs and reduced the profit outlook for 2012. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_040912.mp3 Mon, 9 April 2012 13:20CST 6:02 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn and soybean prices continue to be influenced by a wide range of fundamental factors. Currently, those factors include prospects for the rate of economic growth and commodity demand in China, prospects for the size of the current South American crop, and prospects for the 2012 growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. Corn and soybean prices continue to be influenced by a wide range of fundamental factors. Currently, those factors include prospects for the rate of economic growth and commodity demand in China, prospects for the size of the current South American crop, and prospects for the 2012 growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_032612.mp3 Mon, 26 Mar 2012 11:08CST 4:32 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good With 2011-12 marketing year-ending stocks of U.S. corn expected to be near pipeline levels, the size of the 2012 crop has substantial price implications. Acreage intentions will be revealed in the USDA’s March 30 Prospective Plantings report, but much of the current discussion centers on prospects for the U.S. average corn yield. With 2011-12 marketing year-ending stocks of U.S. corn expected to be near pipeline levels, the size of the 2012 crop has substantial price implications. Acreage intentions will be revealed in the USDA’s March 30 Prospective Plantings report, but much of the current discussion centers on prospects for the U.S. average corn yield. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_031912.mp3 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:10CST 4:25 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good May 2012 corn futures have traded in a range of about $1.00 per bushel since last fall. Since late January, the trading range has been about $.40 per bushel and the current price is near the top of that range. May 2012 corn futures have traded in a range of about $1.00 per bushel since last fall. Since late January, the trading range has been about $.40 per bushel and the current price is near the top of that range. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_031212.mp3 Mon, 12 Mar 2012 11:25CST 4:32 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good It is widely anticipated that the 2012-13 corn marketing year will be a transition from the current environment of tight stocks and high prices to one of a large crop, increasing stocks, and lower prices. The futures market reflects that expectation as the March 2013 futures price is currently trading $0.80 to $0.85 below the March 2012 price. It is widely anticipated that the 2012-13 corn marketing year will be a transition from the current environment of tight stocks and high prices to one of a large crop, increasing stocks, and lower prices. The futures market reflects that expectation as the March 2013 futures price is currently trading $0.80 to $0.85 below the March 2012 price. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_030512.mp3 Mon, 5 Mar 2012 11:35CST 4:31 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Per capita pork consumption in the U.S. has declined sharply in the past several years due primarily to strong pork export growth. Per capita pork consumption in the U.S. averaged 50.1 pounds in 2006 and 2007 when $2 per bushel corn was still the rule. That dropped to a low of 45.8 pounds by 2011, a nine percent decrease. Per capita pork consumption in the U.S. has declined sharply in the past several years due primarily to strong pork export growth. Per capita pork consumption in the U.S. averaged 50.1 pounds in 2006 and 2007 when $2 per bushel corn was still the rule. That dropped to a low of 45.8 pounds by 2011, a nine percent decrease. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_022712.mp3 Mon, 27 Feb 2012 11:55CST 6:39 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good In December 2011, the USDA judged total corn production prospects in Argentina and Brazil at 3.54 billion bushels. That forecast was reduced by 120 million bushels in January and by an additional 160 million bushels earlier this month. All of the reduction has been for the Argentine crop. In December 2011, the USDA judged total corn production prospects in Argentina and Brazil at 3.54 billion bushels. That forecast was reduced by 120 million bushels in January and by an additional 160 million bushels earlier this month. All of the reduction has been for the Argentine crop. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_022012.mp3 Mon, 20 Feb 2012 11:19CST 4:29 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Among the major crops, the corn market has received the lion’s share of attention over the past two months. The attention has been the result of the surprising USDA December 1 stocks estimate, adverse weather conditions in South America, the demise of the ethanol blenders’ tax credit, and prospects for small year-ending stocks. The soybean market, however, has become the focus of more attention in recent weeks. Among the major crops, the corn market has received the lion’s share of attention over the past two months. The attention has been the result of the surprising USDA December 1 stocks estimate, adverse weather conditions in South America, the demise of the ethanol blenders’ tax credit, and prospects for small year-ending stocks. The soybean market, however, has become the focus of more attention in recent weeks. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_021312.mp3 Mon, 13 Feb 2012 11:38CST 4:35 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The 2011-12 corn marketing year is approaching the half-way point. At this time of year, prospects for marketing year consumption and ending stocks are often fairly clear and the market begins to focus more on new crop prospects. The 2011-12 corn marketing year is approaching the half-way point. At this time of year, prospects for marketing year consumption and ending stocks are often fairly clear and the market begins to focus more on new crop prospects. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_020612.mp3 Mon, 6 Feb 2012 11:38CST 4:36 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt While beef supplies will be very short for several more years, the USDA’s Cattle report indicated that the very early stages of beef cattle expansion has begun as beef heifer retention has increased a modest one percent. However, the big picture is that beef cow numbers dropped 3 percent last year and this will mean a smaller calf crop in 2012 that will keep cattle slaughter small for 2013 and 2014. If producers follow through with more heifer retention in 2012 and 2013, slaughter supplies will decline over the next two years and increase finished cattle prices even more. While beef supplies will be very short for several more years, the USDA’s Cattle report indicated that the very early stages of beef cattle expansion has begun as beef heifer retention has increased a modest one percent. However, the big picture is that beef cow numbers dropped 3 percent last year and this will mean a smaller calf crop in 2012 that will keep cattle slaughter small for 2013 and 2014. If producers follow through with more heifer retention in 2012 and 2013, slaughter supplies will decline over the next two years and increase finished cattle prices even more. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_013012.mp3 Tues, 30 Jan 2012 12:05CST 6:57 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Since early October, corn prices have bounced in a wide trading range. March 2012 futures have traded between about $5.75 and $6.75 while December 2012 futures have been between about $5.35 and $6.20. Since early October, corn prices have bounced in a wide trading range. March 2012 futures have traded between about $5.75 and $6.75 while December 2012 futures have been between about $5.35 and $6.20. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_012312.mp3 Mon, 23 Jan 2012 11:48CST 4:33 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The corn market was surprised by the USDA’s final 2011 corn production estimate and the estimate of December 1, 2011 corn stocks. The March 2012 futures price declined by $0.52 per bushel in the two sessions following the release of the reports. The corn market was surprised by the USDA’s final 2011 corn production estimate and the estimate of December 1, 2011 corn stocks. The March 2012 futures price declined by $0.52 per bushel in the two sessions following the release of the reports. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_011712.mp3 Tue, 17 Jan 2012 11:10CST 4:13 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn and soybean prices declined sharply in mid-November and remained at the lower level through mid-December. From mid-December through early January, the cash price of corn in central Illinois increased by $0.78 while the cash price of soybeans increased by $1.21 per bushel. Corn and soybean prices declined sharply in mid-November and remained at the lower level through mid-December. From mid-December through early January, the cash price of corn in central Illinois increased by $0.78 while the cash price of soybeans increased by $1.21 per bushel. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_010912.mp3 Mon, 9 Jan 2012 11:00CST 3:56 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Hog production returned to profitability in 2011, but producers remain cautious about the future. This is evidenced by the modest expansion of the breeding herd as reported by USDA at the end of the year. Hog production returned to profitability in 2011, but producers remain cautious about the future. This is evidenced by the modest expansion of the breeding herd as reported by USDA at the end of the year. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_010312.mp3 Tues, 3 Jan 2012 12:20CST 6:10 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Crop prices are heading to year-end on a weak note. Corn prices are near the level that existed in the first week of January and well below the late summer highs. Soybean prices are well below the level at the start of the year and at the lowest level since early October 2010. Prices of soft red winter wheat are at the lowest level since July 2010. Crop prices are heading to year-end on a weak note. Corn prices are near the level that existed in the first week of January and well below the late summer highs. Soybean prices are well below the level at the start of the year and at the lowest level since early October 2010. Prices of soft red winter wheat are at the lowest level since July 2010. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_121211.mp3 Mon, 12 Dec 2011 8:18CST 3:56 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Crop prices during 2011 were influenced by a wide range of factors that resulted in extremely large trading ranges. The price patterns, however, were very different for corn, soybeans, and wheat. As the year ends, thoughts turn to likely price levels in 2012. Crop prices during 2011 were influenced by a wide range of factors that resulted in extremely large trading ranges. The price patterns, however, were very different for corn, soybeans, and wheat. As the year ends, thoughts turn to likely price levels in 2012. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_120511.mp3 Mon, 5 Dec 2011 12:13CST 4:06 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn and soybean prices have declined sharply since the release of the USDA’s November Crop Production report that contained smaller forecasts of the size of the 2011 harvest for both crops. In addition, the historically strong corn basis has begun to weaken in many markets. Corn and soybean prices have declined sharply since the release of the USDA’s November Crop Production report that contained smaller forecasts of the size of the 2011 harvest for both crops. In addition, the historically strong corn basis has begun to weaken in many markets. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_112811.mp3 Mon, 28 Nov 2011 12:25CST 4:17 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The pork industry is expected to have a profitable year in 2012! In fact, the level of profitability could be the most favorable during the high priced feed era. The pork industry is expected to have a profitable year in 2012! In fact, the level of profitability could be the most favorable during the high priced feed era. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_112111.mp3 Mon, 21 Nov 2011 12:47CST 6:47 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices have traded in a sideways pattern since mid-October, but are currently in the lower end of the recent range. Soybean prices have trended lower over the past month, with January futures now back near the early October lows. Corn prices have traded in a sideways pattern since mid-October, but are currently in the lower end of the recent range. Soybean prices have trended lower over the past month, with January futures now back near the early October lows. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_111411.mp3 Mon, 14 Nov 2011 12:34CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Since the first of October, November 2011 soybean futures have traded in a range of $1.20, with a high of $12.72. The price of that contract is currently about in the middle of the recent trading range and $2.50 below the contract high reached on August 31 Since the first of October, November 2011 soybean futures have traded in a range of $1.20, with a high of $12.72. The price of that contract is currently about in the middle of the recent trading range and $2.50 below the contract high reached on August 31 Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_110711.mp3 Mon, 07 Nov 2011 11:30CST 4:36 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Following wide swings in September and early October, the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat have traded in relatively narrow ranges in the last half of October. Narrow trading ranges reflect the lack of new information and, in some cases, conflicting demand indicators. Following wide swings in September and early October, the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat have traded in relatively narrow ranges in the last half of October. Narrow trading ranges reflect the lack of new information and, in some cases, conflicting demand indicators. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_103111.mp3 Mon, 31 Oct 2011 12:56CST 5:32 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Cattle feeders are going to use more corn than previously expected according to USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report that showed five percent more cattle in the nation’s feedlots. The real surprise was the higher number of placements in September that has resulted in over one-half million more cattle being fed than a year ago. Cattle feeders are going to use more corn than previously expected according to USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report that showed five percent more cattle in the nation’s feedlots. The real surprise was the higher number of placements in September that has resulted in over one-half million more cattle being fed than a year ago. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_102411.mp3 Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:20CST 5:55 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good With the USDA’s October Crop Production report, corn and soybean supply forecasts for the 2011-12 marketing year are likely close to the final estimates. Prices will be primarily influenced by the current rate of consumption and expectations about consumption during the remainder of the marketing year. With the USDA’s October Crop Production report, corn and soybean supply forecasts for the 2011-12 marketing year are likely close to the final estimates. Prices will be primarily influenced by the current rate of consumption and expectations about consumption during the remainder of the marketing year. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_101711.mp3 Mon, 17 Oct 2011 11:25CST 4:26 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good and Scott Irwin While the USDA’s estimate of the September 1, 2011 inventory of old crop corn is old news, there are ongoing questions surrounding the quarterly stocks estimates. For corn, quarterly stocks estimates have not been well anticipated since June 2010. While the USDA’s estimate of the September 1, 2011 inventory of old crop corn is old news, there are ongoing questions surrounding the quarterly stocks estimates. For corn, quarterly stocks estimates have not been well anticipated since June 2010. Darrel Good and Scott Irwin, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_101011.mp3 Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:15CST 4:26 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Finally, pork producers have some positive news that has increased optimism for greater profitability in the coming year. That good news came from USDA in two forms. The first was the September Hogs and Pigs report which indicated little change in the size of the breeding herd. The second was the feed price lowering impacts of higher than expected corn inventories revealed in the September Grain Stocks report. Finally, pork producers have some positive news that has increased optimism for greater profitability in the coming year. That good news came from USDA in two forms. The first was the September Hogs and Pigs report which indicated little change in the size of the breeding herd. The second was the feed price lowering impacts of higher than expected corn inventories revealed in the September Grain Stocks report. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_100311.mp3 Mon, 03 Oct 2011 13:05CST 5:34 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Soybean prices, along with the prices of many commodities, have come under considerable pressure in the month of September. November 2011 futures reached a high of $14.65 on August 31 and traded to a low of $12.26 in the September 26 overnight session before settling at $12.50. Soybean prices, along with the prices of many commodities, have come under considerable pressure in the month of September. November 2011 futures reached a high of $14.65 on August 31 and traded to a low of $12.26 in the September 26 overnight session before settling at $12.50. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_092611.mp3 Mon, 26 Sep 2011 11:38CST 4:42 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices have declined sharply so far in September. The lower prices have occurred even as USDA lowered the 2011 production forecast by more than 400 million bushels, suggesting that consumption during the 2011-12 marketing year will be restricted and that year ending stocks will be minimal. Corn prices have declined sharply so far in September. The lower prices have occurred even as USDA lowered the 2011 production forecast by more than 400 million bushels, suggesting that consumption during the 2011-12 marketing year will be restricted and that year ending stocks will be minimal. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_091911.mp3 Mon, 19 Sep 2011 11:10CST 4:09 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s September 12, 2011 Crop Production report confirmed expectations of a smaller U.S. corn crop than forecast in August. The September soybean production forecast, however, is larger than the August forecast and the forecast size of the foreign wheat, coarse grain, and soybean crops also exceed the August forecasts. The USDA’s September 12, 2011 Crop Production report confirmed expectations of a smaller U.S. corn crop than forecast in August. The September soybean production forecast, however, is larger than the August forecast and the forecast size of the foreign wheat, coarse grain, and soybean crops also exceed the August forecasts. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_091211.mp3 Mon, 12 Sep 2011 11:36CST 4:41 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good With smaller grain and oilseed supplies than those of a year ago and increased storage capacity, there should be fewer crop storage issues than in recent years. The decision by producers to store corn and soybeans, however, should be based on expected returns rather than on capacity to store. With smaller grain and oilseed supplies than those of a year ago and increased storage capacity, there should be fewer crop storage issues than in recent years. The decision by producers to store corn and soybeans, however, should be based on expected returns rather than on capacity to store. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_090611.mp3 Tue, 6 Sep 2011 12:30CST 3:47 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The 2011-12 corn and soybean marketing years will be characterized by the need to reduce consumption of both crops. The magnitude of those needed reductions are not yet known and the prices needed to make those cuts will depend on the strength of underlying demand. The 2011-12 corn and soybean marketing years will be characterized by the need to reduce consumption of both crops. The magnitude of those needed reductions are not yet known and the prices needed to make those cuts will depend on the strength of underlying demand. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_082911.mp3 Mon, 29 Aug 2011 12:15CST 4:08 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt This year’s corn crop is not big enough to meet the entire consumption base that has been built. Prices will have to be high enough to convince some end users to reduce consumption from current levels. Can the pork industry compete with other end users? This year’s corn crop is not big enough to meet the entire consumption base that has been built. Prices will have to be high enough to convince some end users to reduce consumption from current levels. Can the pork industry compete with other end users? Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_082211.mp3 Mon, 22 Aug 2011 12:20CST 5:26 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA projects that 13.245 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be consumed during the marketing year that ends on August 31, 2011. That forecast is 60 million bushels below the July forecast, but is 179 million bushels above the record consumption in the previous year. The USDA projects that 13.245 billion bushels of U.S. corn will be consumed during the marketing year that ends on August 31, 2011. That forecast is 60 million bushels below the July forecast, but is 179 million bushels above the record consumption in the previous year. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_081511.mp3 Mon, 15 Aug 2011 12:15CST 5:00 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The 2011-12 corn and soybean marketing year officially begins on September 1. As pointed out last week, the 2010-11 marketing year is ending with a slowdown in the consumption of both corn and soybeans, suggesting that year ending stocks could be larger than projected in the USDA’s July WASDE report. The 2011-12 corn and soybean marketing year officially begins on September 1. As pointed out last week, the 2010-11 marketing year is ending with a slowdown in the consumption of both corn and soybeans, suggesting that year ending stocks could be larger than projected in the USDA’s July WASDE report. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_080811.mp3 Mon, 8 Aug 2011 10:49CST 4:53 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Much of the corn and soybean market attention is appropriately focused on the prospective size of the 2011 U.S. crops and speculation about the USDA’s August 11 Crop Production report. Much of the corn and soybean market attention is appropriately focused on the prospective size of the 2011 U.S. crops and speculation about the USDA’s August 11 Crop Production report. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_080111.mp3 Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:45CST 4:32 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The quantity of beef available to consumers in the U.S. has declined a startling amount in recent years and that trend is going to continue. The declining supplies are related to continuing liquidation of the cow herd in the past few years due to high feed prices, a weak U.S. dollar that is spurring beef exports, and of course drought in the southwest and southeast. The quantity of beef available to consumers in the U.S. has declined a startling amount in recent years and that trend is going to continue. The declining supplies are related to continuing liquidation of the cow herd in the past few years due to high feed prices, a weak U.S. dollar that is spurring beef exports, and of course drought in the southwest and southeast. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_072511.mp3 Mon, 25 Jul 2011 12:05CST 7:07 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good A number of factors combine each year to determine the U.S. average corn yield. Among those factors, temperature and precipitation during July are the most important. A number of factors combine each year to determine the U.S. average corn yield. Among those factors, temperature and precipitation during July are the most important. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_071811.mp3 Mon, 18 July 2011 11:51CST 4:03 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices have made a modest recovery following the sharp declines stemming from the USDA reports released on June 30. The recovery has reflected a combination of continued strong corn demand and a few concerns about yield potential. Corn prices have made a modest recovery following the sharp declines stemming from the USDA reports released on June 30. The recovery has reflected a combination of continued strong corn demand and a few concerns about yield potential. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_071111.mp3 Mon, 11 July 2011 11:40CST 4:55 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good It is an understatement to say that last week’s USDA estimate of June 1, 2011 corn stocks was a surprise to the market. At 3.67 billion bushels, the estimate was about 370 million bushels larger than the reported average trade guess. It is an understatement to say that last week’s USDA estimate of June 1, 2011 corn stocks was a surprise to the market. At 3.67 billion bushels, the estimate was about 370 million bushels larger than the reported average trade guess. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_070511.mp3 Mon, 5 July 2011 12:28CST 5:10 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Pork producers are maintaining the size of the breeding herd in the face of a very uncertain financial outlook. This cautious position would be expected given the wide swings in both hog and feed prices evident this spring. Pork producers are maintaining the size of the breeding herd in the face of a very uncertain financial outlook. This cautious position would be expected given the wide swings in both hog and feed prices evident this spring. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_062711.mp3 Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:57CST 7:18 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good A large number of factors have contributed to the higher prices of corn and other commodities over the past year. The beginning of the price increase can be traced to the USDA’s forecast of 2010 corn planted acreage and the estimate of June 1 corn stocks released on June 30, 2010. A large number of factors have contributed to the higher prices of corn and other commodities over the past year. The beginning of the price increase can be traced to the USDA’s forecast of 2010 corn planted acreage and the estimate of June 1 corn stocks released on June 30, 2010. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_062011.mp3 Mon, 20 June 2011 10:40CST 3:53 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good In the monthly report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) reduced the forecast of U.S. planted and harvested acreage of corn and rice. In the monthly report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) reduced the forecast of U.S. planted and harvested acreage of corn and rice. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_061311.mp3 Mon, 13 June 2011 13:12CST 3:51 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good For much of the Corn Belt, optimum planting dates for both corn and soybeans are generally identified as occurring in late April or early May. Agronomic research has clearly documented the negative yield impacts of planting corn and soybeans “late”. For much of the Corn Belt, optimum planting dates for both corn and soybeans are generally identified as occurring in late April or early May. Agronomic research has clearly documented the negative yield impacts of planting corn and soybeans “late”. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_060611.mp3 Mon, 6 June 2011 12:50CST 4:12 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat continue to move erratically, reflecting both new information and the lack of some information. Prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat continue to move erratically, reflecting both new information and the lack of some information. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_053111.mp3 Mon, 31 May 2011 12:20CST 4:18 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Two weeks ago, corn prices were declining rapidly and we pondered the likelihood of a recovery similar to those of September 2010, November 2010, and March 2011. Two weeks ago, corn prices were declining rapidly and we pondered the likelihood of a recovery similar to those of September 2010, November 2010, and March 2011. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_052311.mp3 Mon, 23 May 2011 12:55CST 4:02 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released on May 11 refocused the market’s attention on world crop production and the implications for re-building U.S. and world stocks. The USDA’s report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released on May 11 refocused the market’s attention on world crop production and the implications for re-building U.S. and world stocks. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_051611.mp3 Mon, 16 May 2011 11:55CST 4:13 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The corn market has been the “poster child” for the sharp increase in agricultural commodity prices that began last summer and extended into the spring of 2011. Higher corn prices were driven by a combination of shortfalls in crop production, including the U.S. corn crop, and strong demand. The corn market has been the “poster child” for the sharp increase in agricultural commodity prices that began last summer and extended into the spring of 2011. Higher corn prices were driven by a combination of shortfalls in crop production, including the U.S. corn crop, and strong demand. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_050911.mp3 Mon, 9 May 2011 11:55CST 4:22 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good As expected, corn and soybean prices continue to move erratically in a very wide range. Just in the past week, both May 2011 corn and soybean futures had a $.56 trading range. As the markets make the transition from old crop to new crop dominance, a lot of factors are influencing price expectations. As expected, corn and soybean prices continue to move erratically in a very wide range. Just in the past week, both May 2011 corn and soybean futures had a $.56 trading range. As the markets make the transition from old crop to new crop dominance, a lot of factors are influencing price expectations. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_050211.mp3 Mon, 2 May 2011 11:49CST 3:26 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Cattle prices have had a remarkable run to the upside, with finished steers reaching the low $120s per hundredweight in early April. Now there are signs that those lofty prices will not be maintained into the spring and summer. Cattle prices have had a remarkable run to the upside, with finished steers reaching the low $120s per hundredweight in early April. Now there are signs that those lofty prices will not be maintained into the spring and summer. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_042511.mp3 Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:30CST 8:16 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Old crop corn prices declined sharply in the first half of March as it appeared that high prices had sufficiently slowed the rate of consumption. However, a continued high rate of ethanol production, a resurgence of export sales, and larger livestock inventories provided evidence that consumption had not slowed. Old crop corn prices declined sharply in the first half of March as it appeared that high prices had sufficiently slowed the rate of consumption. However, a continued high rate of ethanol production, a resurgence of export sales, and larger livestock inventories provided evidence that consumption had not slowed. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_041811.mp3 Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:49CST 4:25 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s monthly update of prospective supply and demand for U.S. corn and soybeans released on April 8 contained some changes from the March report, but re-affirmed the tightness of supply. The USDA’s monthly update of prospective supply and demand for U.S. corn and soybeans released on April 8 contained some changes from the March report, but re-affirmed the tightness of supply. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_041111.mp3 Mon, 11 Apr 2011 11:30CST 4:07 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s March 1 Grain Stocks report revealed a surprisingly small inventory of corn. The smaller than expected inventory implies that consumption during the second quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year was larger than expected. The USDA’s March 1 Grain Stocks report revealed a surprisingly small inventory of corn. The smaller than expected inventory implies that consumption during the second quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year was larger than expected. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_040411.mp3 Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:00CST 3:51 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The highest hog prices on record will soon be arriving. These may be the highest hog prices for the next several years as well, especially if corn and soybean shortages can be reduced somewhat this summer with favorable growing conditions. The highest hog prices on record will soon be arriving. These may be the highest hog prices for the next several years as well, especially if corn and soybean shortages can be reduced somewhat this summer with favorable growing conditions. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_032811.mp3 Mon, 28 Mar 2011 13:30CST 9:26 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The corn market, along with most other commodity and financial markets, was negatively impacted by the uncertainty created by the natural disaster in Japan and on-going conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. The Japanese situation is especially important for corn since Japan is the largest importer of U.S. corn. The corn market, along with most other commodity and financial markets, was negatively impacted by the uncertainty created by the natural disaster in Japan and on-going conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. The Japanese situation is especially important for corn since Japan is the largest importer of U.S. corn. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_032111.mp3 Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:15CST 4:06 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good In our newsletter of January 18, it was suggested that corn and soybean prices had the dual objectives of allocating old crop supplies so as to maintain pipeline supplies at the end of the year and directing spring planting decisions. In our newsletter of January 18, it was suggested that corn and soybean prices had the dual objectives of allocating old crop supplies so as to maintain pipeline supplies at the end of the year and directing spring planting decisions. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_031411.mp3 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 13:00CST 4:15 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA will release two important reports on March 31. These are the Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports. A lot of discussion has focused on the Prospective Plantings report and the importance of farmers' intentions for total planted acreage and the acreage of individual crops. he USDA will release two important reports on March 31. These are the Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports. A lot of discussion has focused on the Prospective Plantings report and the importance of farmers' intentions for total planted acreage and the acreage of individual crops. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_030711.mp3 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 13:00CST 4:22 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The pork industry in 2011 will be walking a tight rope between high hog prices and high feed prices. Consumers will be paying record high prices for pork. The pork industry in 2011 will be walking a tight rope between high hog prices and high feed prices. Consumers will be paying record high prices for pork. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_022811.mp3 Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:30CST 8:10 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Most of the focus on 2011 U.S. planted acreage centers on corn acreage. There are a number of reasons for that focus. Most of the focus on 2011 U.S. planted acreage centers on corn acreage. There are a number of reasons for that focus. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_022111.mp3 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 12:00CST 4:35 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report and weekly reports of export inspections provide timely information about export demand for U.S. agricultural commodities. The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report and weekly reports of export inspections provide timely information about export demand for U.S. agricultural commodities. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_021711.mp3 Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:45CST 4:17 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Three weeks ago we assessed the rate of consumption of corn and soybeans and concluded that corn consumption was progressing too rapidly based on available supplies. Soybean consumption appeared to have slowed enough so that further rationing was not required. Three weeks ago we assessed the rate of consumption of corn and soybeans and concluded that corn consumption was progressing too rapidly based on available supplies. Soybean consumption appeared to have slowed enough so that further rationing was not required. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_020711.mp3 Mon, 7 Feb 2011 12:30CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt A smaller beef herd reported in USDA’s January 1 Cattle inventory estimates provided the cattle markets with even more bullish news. Beef cow numbers continue to fall as producers seem to want out of the business. A smaller beef herd reported in USDA’s January 1 Cattle inventory estimates provided the cattle markets with even more bullish news. Beef cow numbers continue to fall as producers seem to want out of the business. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_013111.mp3 Mon, 31 Jan 2011 16:00CST 7:06 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA projects that corn stocks at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year will total only 745 million bushels. That projection represents 5.5 percent of projected marketing year consumption. Five percent is considered to be a minimal pipeline supply. The USDA projects that corn stocks at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year will total only 745 million bushels. That projection represents 5.5 percent of projected marketing year consumption. Five percent is considered to be a minimal pipeline supply. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_012411.mp3 Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:30CST 4:43 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Over the next three months, the prices of corn and soybeans have two major objectives. First, prices must allocate remaining old crop supplies to maintain at least pipeline stocks by the end of the current marketing year. Second, prices must direct spring planting decisions. Over the next three months, the prices of corn and soybeans have two major objectives. First, prices must allocate remaining old crop supplies to maintain at least pipeline stocks by the end of the current marketing year. Second, prices must direct spring planting decisions. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_011811.mp3 Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:30CST 4:20 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good On January 12, the USDA will release a number of reports that will contain important information for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. These reports, along with crop development in the southern hemisphere, will set the tone for the markets into the spring. On January 12, the USDA will release a number of reports that will contain important information for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. These reports, along with crop development in the southern hemisphere, will set the tone for the markets into the spring. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_011011.mp3 Mon, 10 Jan 2011 11:30CST 4:28 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Hog and pork prices are expected to launch to record highs in 2011. The stimulus will come from smaller per capita U.S. supplies and from much stronger demand. Hog and pork prices are expected to launch to record highs in 2011. The stimulus will come from smaller per capita U.S. supplies and from much stronger demand. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_010311.mp3 Mon, 03 Jan 2011 14:00CST 9:18 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA made relatively few changes in the projections of U.S. and world crop supply and consumption in the December report. The USDA made relatively few changes in the projections of U.S. and world crop supply and consumption in the December report. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_121310.mp3 Mon, 13 Dec 2010 11:30CST 4:09 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2010 corn futures have regained more than half of the decline that occurred from November 9 to November 23. Cash prices have recovered even more as basis levels continue to strengthen. December 2010 corn futures have regained more than half of the decline that occurred from November 9 to November 23. Cash prices have recovered even more as basis levels continue to strengthen. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_120610.mp3 Mon, 6 Dec 2010 11:30CST 4:08 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn, soybean, and wheat prices dropped sharply following the spike on November 9. Since the recent lows were established, prices have traded in a relatively narrow range. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices dropped sharply following the spike on November 9. Since the recent lows were established, prices have traded in a relatively narrow range. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_112910.mp3 Mon, 29 Nov 2010 12:30CST 4:27 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Hog producers have been feeling the bite of losses once again this fall, but there is reason for some optimism. Hog producers have been feeling the bite of losses once again this fall, but there is reason for some optimism. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_112210.mp3 Mon, 22 Nov 2010 14:00CST 9:31 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Except for a brief retreat in early October, corn, soybean, and wheat prices were in a steady uptrend from June 30 through November 9. Except for a brief retreat in early October, corn, soybean, and wheat prices were in a steady uptrend from June 30 through November 9. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_111510.mp3 Mon, 15 Nov 2010 12:30CST 3:39 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices continue to be supported by expectations that the USDA will reduce the forecast size of the 2010 U.S. crop and by a rapid pace of ethanol production. The pace of exports and export sales has been somewhat disappointing. Corn prices continue to be supported by expectations that the USDA will reduce the forecast size of the 2010 U.S. crop and by a rapid pace of ethanol production. The pace of exports and export sales has been somewhat disappointing. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_110810.mp3 Mon, 8 Nov 2010 12:30CST 4:28 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2010 corn futures moved above $5.00 in mid-September, moderated in early October, and then moved sharply higher following the USDA's October Crop Production report. The month of November started with new highs for that contract. December 2010 corn futures moved above $5.00 in mid-September, moderated in early October, and then moved sharply higher following the USDA's October Crop Production report. The month of November started with new highs for that contract. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_110110.mp3 Mon, 1 Nov 2010 12:15CST 4:24 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Planted acreage of corn in the U.S. in 2010 totaled 88.222 million acres, 1.74 million more than planted in 2009, but 5.305 million fewer than planted in 2007. Planted acreage of soybeans in 2010 was a record 77.714 million, 263,000 more than planted in 2009. Planted acreage of corn in the U.S. in 2010 totaled 88.222 million acres, 1.74 million more than planted in 2009, but 5.305 million fewer than planted in 2007. Planted acreage of soybeans in 2010 was a record 77.714 million, 263,000 more than planted in 2009. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_102510.mp3 Mon, 25 Oct 2010 11:15CST 4:32 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The cattle industry is ready to set records for high prices this year and next. While this is positive news for finished cattle prices, calves and feeder cattle still face the price-depressing burden of high feed costs. The cattle industry is ready to set records for high prices this year and next. While this is positive news for finished cattle prices, calves and feeder cattle still face the price-depressing burden of high feed costs. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_101810.mp3 Mon, 18 Oct 2010 14:15CST 9:05 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2010 corn futures traded to a high of $5.235 on September 27 and closed at $5.05 on September 29. The surprisingly large USDA September 1 corn stocks estimate released on September 30 sent that contract to a low of $4.56 on October 4. December 2010 corn futures traded to a high of $5.235 on September 27 and closed at $5.05 on September 29. The surprisingly large USDA September 1 corn stocks estimate released on September 30 sent that contract to a low of $4.56 on October 4. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_101110.mp3 Mon, 11 Oct 2010 12:15CST 4:59 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s September Grain Stocks report indicates that the corn that went missing in June was found in September. The USDA’s September Grain Stocks report indicates that the corn that went missing in June was found in September. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_100410.mp3 Mon, 4 Oct 2010 11:00CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Hog producers were ready to expand this fall. That may have been appropriate when the expectation of 2010 corn prices was close to $3.50 in early July, but that is no longer an acceptable conclusion with expectations closer to $5.00. Hog producers were ready to expand this fall. That may have been appropriate when the expectation of 2010 corn prices was close to $3.50 in early July, but that is no longer an acceptable conclusion with expectations closer to $5.00. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_092710.mp3 Mon, 27 Sep 2010 14:00CST 8:37 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Two weeks ago we wrote about the strength in soybean prices and the importance of upcoming USDA reports and the importance of South American crop prospects. There has been a lot of action in the soybean market since then. Two weeks ago we wrote about the strength in soybean prices and the importance of upcoming USDA reports and the importance of South American crop prospects. There has been a lot of action in the soybean market since then. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_092010.mp3 Mon, 20 Sep 2010 13:00CST 4:24 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA reports released on September 10 provided substantial new information for the corn and soybean markets, but a number of questions remain. The USDA reports released on September 10 provided substantial new information for the corn and soybean markets, but a number of questions remain. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_091310.mp3 Mon, 13 Sep 2010 12:00CST 4:40 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Much of the attention in the crop markets in recent weeks has been focused on wheat and corn. Soybean prices have traded in a wide range over the past two months, but fundamental developments have been less dramatic than in the wheat and corn markets. Much of the attention in the crop markets in recent weeks has been focused on wheat and corn. Soybean prices have traded in a wide range over the past two months, but fundamental developments have been less dramatic than in the wheat and corn markets. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_090710.mp3 Tue, 7 Sep 2010 13:00CST 4:20 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn prices have been moving higher since June 30 when the USDA revealed smaller stocks and fewer planted acres than expected. Corn prices have been moving higher since June 30 when the USDA revealed smaller stocks and fewer planted acres than expected. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_083010.mp3 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 12:00CST 4:30 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt There’s an old adage among farmers in the Midwest that when corn is cheap you have to “walk it to market.” There’s an old adage among farmers in the Midwest that when corn is cheap you have to “walk it to market.” Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_082310.mp3 Mon, 23 Aug 2010 14:00CST 10:58 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s August 12 reports of world and U.S. crop production, consumption, and price prospects paint a picture of potentially strong demand for U.S. crops. The USDA’s August 12 reports of world and U.S. crop production, consumption, and price prospects paint a picture of potentially strong demand for U.S. crops. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_081610.mp3 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 13:00CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA will release the first forecasts of the size of the 2010 U.S. corn and soybean crops on August 12. Those forecasts are based on a large survey of producers and objective yield data gathered in the largest production states. The USDA will release the first forecasts of the size of the 2010 U.S. corn and soybean crops on August 12. Those forecasts are based on a large survey of producers and objective yield data gathered in the largest production states. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_080910.mp3 Mon, 9 Aug 2010 13:00CST 4:05 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Corn and soybean prices managed an impressive rally during the first half of July. That rally was initiated by smaller than expected June inventories and smaller than expected corn acreage revealed in USDA’s June 30 reports. Corn and soybean prices managed an impressive rally during the first half of July. That rally was initiated by smaller than expected June inventories and smaller than expected corn acreage revealed in USDA’s June 30 reports. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_071910.mp3 Mon, 19 Jul 2010 12:00CST 4:34 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s July report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates contained a number of changes from the June report. The USDA’s July report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates contained a number of changes from the June report. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_071210.mp3 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 12:00CST 3:56 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2010 corn futures declined about $.40 per bushel during the last half of June. The price pattern was reversed following the June 30 USDA reports. December 2010 corn futures declined about $.40 per bushel during the last half of June. The price pattern was reversed following the June 30 USDA reports. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_070610.mp3 Tue, 6 Jul 2010 12:00CST 4:05 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt In May 2010, live hog prices averaged about $63 per live hundredweight. It is rare for a monthly average hog price to exceed $60. Since 1970, that has occurred only 13 times. There have been more blue moons since 1970, a total of 15. In May 2010, live hog prices averaged about $63 per live hundredweight. It is rare for a monthly average hog price to exceed $60. Since 1970, that has occurred only 13 times. There have been more blue moons since 1970, a total of 15. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_062810.mp3 Mon, 28 June 2010 4:00CST 6:12 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Three upcoming USDA reports will provide important information for the corn and soybean markets. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released on June 25 and the quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Acreage reports will be released on June 30. Three upcoming USDA reports will provide important information for the corn and soybean markets. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released on June 25 and the quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Acreage reports will be released on June 30. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_062110.mp3 Mon, 21 Jun 2010 12:00CST 5:13 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Based on the USDA’s forecasts released on June 10, consumption of U.S. corn during the current marketing year will exceed production in 2009. Based on the USDA’s forecasts released on June 10, consumption of U.S. corn during the current marketing year will exceed production in 2009. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_061410.mp3 Mon, 14 Jun 2010 12:00CST 4:03 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The prices of wheat and soybeans have been trending lower since late April/early May. Corn prices declined sharply last week. The prices of wheat and soybeans have been trending lower since late April/early May. Corn prices declined sharply last week. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_060710.mp3 Mon, 7 Jun 2010 12:00CST 4:49 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good For the current marketing year that runs through August 2010, the USDA projects U.S. corn exports at 1.95 billion bushels. For the current marketing year that runs through August 2010, the USDA projects U.S. corn exports at 1.95 billion bushels. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_060110.mp3 Mon, 1 Jun 2010 12:00CST 4:13 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Suddenly, owning cattle looks like a stroke of genius. In a few short months, cattle prices have staged a seemingly miraculous comeback. The reasons are clear, now the question is can it last? Suddenly, owning cattle looks like a stroke of genius. In a few short months, cattle prices have staged a seemingly miraculous comeback. The reasons are clear, now the question is can it last? Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_052410.mp3 Mon, 24 May 2010 1:00CST 5:49 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good There is always lots of interest in the USDA’s first projections of crop supply and consumption for the upcoming marketing year. There is always lots of interest in the USDA’s first projections of crop supply and consumption for the upcoming marketing year. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_051710.mp3 Mon, 17 May 2010 11:00CST 4:17 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good A large number of factors continue to exert some influence on the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat. A different factor appears to take the spotlight on an almost daily basis. A large number of factors continue to exert some influence on the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat. A different factor appears to take the spotlight on an almost daily basis. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_051010.mp3 Mon, 10 May 2010 1:00CST 4:20 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good December 2010 corn futures traded to a high of $3.95 in mid-April, retreated to a low of $3.67 early last week, and then rallied back to $3.95. December 2010 corn futures traded to a high of $3.95 in mid-April, retreated to a low of $3.67 early last week, and then rallied back to $3.95. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_050310.mp3 Mon, 3 May 2010 12:00CST 4:08 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Suddenly, owning cattle looks like a stroke of genius. In a few short months, cattle prices have staged a seemingly miraculous comeback. The reasons are clear, now the question is can it last? Suddenly, owning cattle looks like a stroke of genius. In a few short months, cattle prices have staged a seemingly miraculous comeback. The reasons are clear, now the question is can it last? Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_042610.mp3 Mon, 26 Apr 2010 14:00CST 6:12 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good Prices for the 2010 corn and soybean crops experienced some weakness immediately following the March 31 USDA reports, but made substantial gains in the following two weeks. That rebound appears to be ending. Prices for the 2010 corn and soybean crops experienced some weakness immediately following the March 31 USDA reports, but made substantial gains in the following two weeks. That rebound appears to be ending. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_041910.mp3 Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:00CST 3:39 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The start of the 2010 growing season for corn and soybeans is fundamentally different than the start for the 2008 and 2009 growing seasons. Differences are on both the supply and consumption sides of the market. The start of the 2010 growing season for corn and soybeans is fundamentally different than the start for the 2008 and 2009 growing seasons. Differences are on both the supply and consumption sides of the market. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_041210.mp3 Mon, 12 Apr 2010 12:00CST 4:14 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA’s estimates of March 1 stocks of soybeans and corn were generally larger than expected. The USDA’s estimates of March 1 stocks of soybeans and corn were generally larger than expected. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_040510.mp3 Mon, 5 Apr 2010 11:00CST 4:41 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The latest inventory count from USDA indicates that the greater liquidation of the breeding herd will drop pork production more than had been anticipated. The latest inventory count from USDA indicates that the greater liquidation of the breeding herd will drop pork production more than had been anticipated. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_032910.mp3 Mon, 29 Mar 2010 13:00CST 6:24 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The consumption of U.S. soybeans has a very clear seasonal pattern. That pattern is modest for the domestic crush and very pronounced for exports. The consumption of U.S. soybeans has a very clear seasonal pattern. That pattern is modest for the domestic crush and very pronounced for exports. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_032210.mp3 Mon, 22 Mar 2010 13:00CST 4:23 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The USDA will release two reports on March 31 that could have significance for corn and soybean prices. These are the March 1 Grain Stocks report and the annual Prospective Plantings report. The USDA will release two reports on March 31 that could have significance for corn and soybean prices. These are the March 1 Grain Stocks report and the annual Prospective Plantings report. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_031510.mp3 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:00CST 4:25 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good It has not been uncommon for daily fluctuations in corn prices to be attributed to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. So, what is the connection? It has not been uncommon for daily fluctuations in corn prices to be attributed to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. So, what is the connection? Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_030810.mp3 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 13:00CST 3:41 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt Return to profitability is the theme for the pork industry in 2010. Return to profitability is the theme for the pork industry in 2010. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_030110.mp3 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:00CST 5:21 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The average price of soft red winter (SRW) wheat received by Illinois producers declined from $4.29 in June 2009 to $3.25 in September 2009. The average price of soft red winter (SRW) wheat received by Illinois producers declined from $4.29 in June 2009 to $3.25 in September 2009. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_022210.mp3 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:00CST 4:21 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good In its February report, the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board revised the projections of 2009-10 marketing year corn and soybean exports. In its February report, the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board revised the projections of 2009-10 marketing year corn and soybean exports. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_021510.mp3 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:00CST 4:19 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The month long decline in corn and soybean prices has slowed and signs of a near term low have emerged. The month long decline in corn and soybean prices has slowed and signs of a near term low have emerged. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_020810.mp3 Mon, 8 Feb 2010 12:00CST 4:43 agricultural, marketing, outlook Chris Hurt The cattle industry should be on the mend in 2010. The cattle industry should be on the mend in 2010. Chris Hurt, Extension Economist, Purdue University http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_020110.mp3 Mon, 1 Feb 2010 12:00CST 5:51 agricultural, marketing, outlook Darrel Good The sharp decline in winter wheat seedings in 2009 has analysts guessing how that acreage will be divided among spring planted crops in 2010. The sharp decline in winter wheat seedings in 2009 has analysts guessing how that acreage will be divided among spring planted crops in 2010. Darrel Good, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/podcasts/weeklyoutlook/Weekly_Outlook_012510.mp3 Mon, 25 Jan 2010 11:00CST 4:15 agricultural, marketing, outlook