Nitrogen fertilizer prices have increased substantially since Operation Epic Fury commenced. Higher fertilizer prices are likely to continue into the fall. This longer-run price increase could result in a larger impact on farmer costs and returns in 2027 than in 2026. At that point, decision-making for the 2027 crop will present challenges. Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres.

The early market response to the Hormuz disruption points to a concentrated rather than broad-based risk for U.S. agriculture. Energy markets reacted most sharply, but in fertilizer markets the strongest response has so far been concentrated in nitrogen products, especially urea, where prices rose by more than 28% within three weeks. Historical experience suggests the current effects may still be in an early phase. Fertilizer prices often continue to rise for several months after the initial disruption.

Tax credits have been crucial to staving off an even larger wave of FAME biodiesel plant shutdowns in recent months. Without tax credit revenue, the market would have signaled that biodiesel plants shut down production every single week since the beginning of 2025. Looking ahead, this situation raises the stakes even higher for the upcoming EPA final rulemaking on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. Strong RVO mandates for biomass-based diesel would provide crucial additional revenue.

The current conflict in the Middle East has increased the prices of energy and fertilizers. Impacts on corn and soybean prices are more difficult to determine. Here, we examine price movements since the start of airstrikes from the US and Israel on February 28. The overall impact on costs will depend on the length of the conflict. While many inputs for 2026 have already been purchased, profitability prospects for this year are likely reduced. Cost increases could also be felt in future years.

The Trump administration is preparing to expand the opportunity for sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer by waiving the fuel from US volatility requirements, according to people familiar with…

The vast majority of over two million landowners who rented out 347.8 million acres of agricultural land in 2024 were non-farming landlords, according to the latest USDA survey data, while…