Despite increases in projected production costs, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, improved pricing prospects for the 2026 and 2027 crop years result in higher per acre return projections compared with recent years. However, projected returns remain below longer-run averages. Downward price movements could quickly shift marginally positive projected returns back into the red. Pricing more than the usual amount of 2026 crop at harvest may be warranted given recent increases in prices.
Revision to Illinois crop budgets show improved return prospects due to slight increases in projected prices and significant federal support from the Farmer Bridge Assistance and ARC/PLC programs. Due to the bridge program payments, return projections for 2025 are now slightly above break-even levels in northern and central Illinois but remain negative in southern Illinois. Updated 2026 crop budgets suggest another year of negative average returns to corn-soybean rotations.
In 2024, total noncapital living expenses of 1,354 farm families enrolled in the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association averaged $96,114–or about $8,000 a month for each family. This average was about 1% lower than in 2023. Another $6,548 was used to buy capital items such as the personal share of the family automobile, furniture, and household equipment. The grand total for living expenses averaged $102,662 for 2024 compared with $105,862 for 2023, or a $3,200 decrease per family.
The average cash rent for Illinois farmland saw a small decline for the second year in a row in 2026. Higher corn and soybean prices have improved the return outlook for both 2026 and 2027 compared to the previous three crop years, and producers are expected to receive relatively large payment from the 2025 ARC/PLC programs in the next month. However, expected returns remain below longer-term averages. This suggests farmland rental rates will likely remain relatively stable heading into 2027.
Results from August 2026 Ag Economy Barometer highlight that farmland ownership is motivated by more than current financial returns. Family or sentimental reasons were the primary motivation for 45% of respondents, while another 32% identified long-term investment as their main reason for owning farmland. Only 22% selected current income. These motivations are consistent with producers’ broader views of farmland as an asset.
The average farm real estate value for Illinois in 2026 was $9,250 per acre. This includes the value of all land and buildings used for agricultural production. The figure was 3.6% higher than the 2025 average of $8,930 per acre. This is the sixth year in a row of at least a 2.4% increase since 2020. During the last six years, there has been a steadier increase of 2.4% to 3.6 % increase, except for 2022 with a 10.5% increase.
November 5, 2019
The 2018 Farm Bill What-If Tool has been released (click here to download). This Microsoft Excel spreadsheet will estimate Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage at the county level...
The Gardner Payment Calculator provides estimates of expected payments and likelihood of payments for ARC-CO and PLC. Payment estimates are provided for the program years from 2019 to 2023. Users can select the state, county, and crop combination that they wish to consider.
If you are having trouble registering please view the faq or watch the video below.
This program calculates Agricultural Risk Coverage for County Coverage (ARC-CO), Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments, and ARC at the Individual Level (ARC-IC). County yields and market year average (MYA) prices are brought in for a user-specified state-county-crop combination. Users then can change 2018 through 2020 county yields and prices to see ARC-CO and PLC payments under those yields and prices.
As an alternative to the executable tool you can download the spreadsheet here.
The number four spot in the top five most problematic changes to farm policy in the Reconciliation Farm Bill belongs to possibly the most obscure change in the agriculture title. Congress provided an additional subsidy to crop insurance companies to encourage continued sales of policies in high-risk states. This article explains the policy change and offers some perspective.
Commodity program payments for 2024 are estimated to be limited to ARC-CO in some southern and northern Illinois counties for corn and soybeans. Commodity title program payments seem more likely to occur for the 2025 commodity title program. Even with the larger payment expectations, due in part to changes to commodity programs in the OBBB Act, 2025 return prospects remain negative for cash rented farmland in Illinois. This could lead to calls for additional ad hoc support for 2025.
As of July 4, 2025, budget reconciliation, bearing the title “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” is Public Law. Among its many provisions are revisions to the major mandatory programs of the Farm Bill, reauthorizing them through 2031. Rushed through Congress under special budget procedures and a dearth of deliberation, much about this new federal law remains confusing and dismaying. This article reviews an expanded loophole for farm program payment limitations as a potential Rosetta Stone.
This farmdoc daily article discusses the changes made to the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs in the commodity provisions of the budget reconciliation legislation known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). For the 2025 crop year, the new commodity title provisions are expected to increase payments by significant amounts. Those payments, however, will not be received until October 2026.
Both the House and Senate Reconciliation Bills include provisions to encourage the purchase of the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO). Since 2015 when SCO was first offered, actual county-level yields of corn and soybeans in the Midwest have been above expected yields in most years, implying a continuation of historical increases in yield and lower expectations for indemnities. On the other hand, actual county-level yields have been below expected yields for the majority of years for cotton.
The House Reconciliation Bill includes provisions to modify the Supplemental Coverage Option, a crop insurance product providing county coverage above Revenue Protection and other farm-level products. This article examines what the payments would have been from 2015 to 2023 under the proposed structure and finds that the proposed SCO product would have limited benefits to corn and soybean production in many Midwest states. More benefits, however, would have flowed to riskier production regions.