September 22, 2004
RETURNS IMPROVE MARGINALLY FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS IN 2003, PROFITS SHOULD RETURN IN 2004
While there was some improvement in milk prices,
total economic costs still exceeded total returns for Illinois dairy
producers in 2003, according to figures summarized by University
of Illinois agricultural economists in cooperation with the Illinois
Farm Business Farm Management Association.
The average net price received per 100 pounds of milk was $12.51
which was less than total costs of $13.92. The average price received
for milk in 2002 was $12.22. On a per cow basis, total returns from
milk were $2,421 compared to the total cost to produce milk of $2,696
per cow. Total costs have exceeded total returns in three of the
last five years. Total returns have exceeded total economic costs
four out of the last ten years.
MILK PRODUCTION PER COW
Milk production per cow averaged 19,353 pounds. The average was
919 pounds less per cow than in 2002. It still was the third highest
level ever. The highest was in 2001 when milk production was 20,715
pounds per cow.
COSTS AND RETURNS
Trends in total costs and returns per cow for all herds is given
from 1994 to 2003 in Figure 1. The profit margin (return above all
cost) increased from a negative $334 in 2002 to a negative $275
per cow in 2003. The 2003 returns per cow were the third lowest
for any year in the last ten years. The last five year returns above
all costs has averaged a negative $106 per cow. During this period,
returns above all costs per cow have varied from a negative $334
in 2002 to $279 in 2001. In figure 1, labor and interest charges
are included in total costs only. Most dairy producers will incur
some hired labor and cash interest expense and would include them
as cash operating costs.
Figure 1. Returns and costs to produce milk, 1994 to 2003.
Interest, depreciation, and labor charges are included in total costs only.
The 2003 returns were 25 cents per 100 pounds produced higher than
the 2002 returns due to slightly higher milk prices. The average
net price received for milk was $12.51 per 100 pounds. This is 29
cents per 100 pounds or 2 percent higher than the average price
received in 2002. Based on 19,400 pounds of milk produced per cow,
this increase in price increased total returns per cow by $56. The
average net price received for milk for the last five-year period
is $13.21 per hundred pounds. Dairy assistance payments from the
Farm Service Agency and patronage returns related to the dairy enterprise
were not included in returns. This would add about $1.50 per 100 pounds of
milk produced to returns.
While the price received per 100 pounds of milk increased, feed
and non-feed costs also increased slightly per 100 pounds of milk
produced. Feed costs in 2003 averaged $6.95 per 100 pounds of milk
produced as compared to $6.49 in 2002. Feed costs have averaged
$6.50 the last five years. Feed costs of $8.66 per 100 pounds of
milk produced in 1996 were the highest on record. Feed costs were
50 percent of the total cost to produce milk. Non-feed costs per
100 pounds of milk produced were $6.97 in 2003 compared to $7.39
PROFITABLE YEAR PROJECTED FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS
Profit margins for dairy producers in 2004 should return to the
positive side due to higher milk prices. Total returns should exceed
total economic costs. The average price received for milk in 2003
was 2 percent higher than the average in 2002. The average milk
price for 2004 is projected to be about 25 percent above the average
for 2003. The number of milk cows in the United States in 2004 is
expected to be slightly lower than in 2003. Even with an increase
in milk production per cow, total milk production is projected to
be slightly lower in 2004 compared to 2003. This will result in
significantly higher milk prices.
While milk prices should increase, feed costs will also be higher
than the year before. Although corn and soybean production will
be at high levels, the average price for the year for corn and supplement
will be higher due to high grain prices this spring. Feed costs
per 100 pounds of milk produced would average about $7.40 using
prices of $2.50 per bushel for corn, $.1625 a pound for protein
and $95 a ton for hay. This is based on annual feed consumption
per cow, including replacement animals, of 128 bushels of corn,
3,550 pounds of protein, and 8.0 tons of hay or hay equivalents.
If non-feed costs per 100 pounds of milk produced averaged $7.00,
total costs to produce 100 pounds of milk would be $14.40. A 25
percent increase in milk prices in 2004 for Illinois producers would
result in an annual price of about $15.65 per 100 pounds. If total
economic costs averaged $14.40 per 100 pounds of milk produced,
the average Illinois producer would have total returns exceed total
economic costs by $1.25 per 100 pounds of milk produced.
The author would like to acknowledge that data
used in this study comes from the local Farm Business Farm Management
(FBFM) Associations across the State of Illinois. Without their
cooperation, information as comprehensive and accurate as this would
not be available for educational purposes. FBFM, which consists
of 6,000 plus farmers and 61 professional field staff, is a not-for-profit
organization available to all farm operators in Illinois. FBFM field
staff provide on-farm counsel with computerized recordkeeping, farm
financial management, business entity planning and income tax management.
For more information, please contact the State FBFM Office located
at the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer
Economics at 217-333-5511 or visit the FBFM website at www.fbfm.org.
A more thorough report can be found at the University
of Illinois Farmdoc website:
Issued by: Dale Lattz, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics